EURUSD Technical Analysis 2015, 04.10 - 11.10: on the border waiting for direction

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.10.05 09:02

EUR/USD: Levels & Targets by UOB (based on efxnews article)

UOB expects for EUR/USD the ranging within 1.1160 and 1.1275.

• "It is likely that a temporary top is in place but the down-move from the high is viewed as part of a consolidation and not the start of a sustained downmove."
  
• "From here, only a clear break above 1.1330 will shift the current neutral outlook to bearish. In the meanwhile, this pair is expected to trade in choppy manner, likely within 1.1115 and 1.1330 for another week or so."
  

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.10.06 13:39

Intraday Outlooks for EUR/USD by SEB (based on efxnews article)

EUR/USD: "Sellers keep responding. Thinned dynamic resistance keeps attracting responsive selling, but bears' initiative below 1.1150/05 is needed to confirm the ongoing bearish "Flag". Current intraday stretches are located at 1.1115 & 1.1285."

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.10.07 09:32

EUR and the global risk picture - Morgan Stanley (based on efxnews article)

Morgan Stanley is expecting for EUR/USd to be in breakdown below 1.1120/1.1100 level with 1.0850 as a next target with the possibility to break resistance levels in spike way in short-term situation for example:

• "A more risk positive environment appears to be developing for currencies markets which should continue to provide some short-term relief for commodity-related currencies and selective EM currencies."
  
• "However, the reaction in currency markets, so far, has been more muted than may have been expected. This may cause some questioning of the relationship between currencies and the risk environment."
  
• "We think it does, although it has been challenged on occasions recently. Indeed, monetary policy expectations are also having a strong influence on the EUR. Our FX drivers analysis suggests that front-end rates are having an equally strong positive relationship with the EUR as the negative risk relationship."
• "Hence, while we believe that the relationship between the EUR and the global risk picture remains intact, it has loosened and is now more prone to challenges and shift in policy expectations."
• "Overall, in the current environment we expect the EUR to put pressure on the lower end of the range, with a break below 1.1120/00 opening the way for a EURUSD decline towards 1.0850. But risk-off events should still generate EUR spikes higher."
  

As we see from the chart above - the price is on bearish with the ranging within the following support/resistance levels:

• 1.1459 resistance level located inside Ichimoku cloud in the ranging area of the chart, the next target in this case is 1.2655 'reversal' resistance level located in the primary bullish area of the chart, and
• 1.0924 support level located in the bearish area with 1.0807 as a next bearish target.

Thus, the most expected scenario is the following: the price will go down for breaking 1.0924 with 1.0807 as the next bearish target. As we are talking about the ranging market condition for this pair so we should expect some local downtrend as a bear market rally up to 1.1459 resistance in short-term basis for example.