Forecasts for EUR/JPY by Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ: bearish monthly breakdown to be started in Mar'16

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2015.09.11 05:55

USD trading strategy going into next week's FOMC meeting - Morgan Stanley (based on efxnews article)

Morgan Stanley estimated thew probability for Fed hike in September vs December meetings, and it was stated that a 30% chance only of a hike in September, so there is more chance to expect this events in December this year. And in this case, it may be more opportunity for EUR and JPY with related to USD: those pairs may be in bullish condition during the September 17th meeting for example.

Thus, there are 3 basic scenarios concerning Fed hike:

Base-Case: December. "The Fed has entered its pre-meeting silent period, which means there are no speakers on the agenda to move market expectations of the first hike before the September 17th meeting. Comments from the Fed thus far suggest the central bank wants to make the first hike as well flagged as possible and avoid surprising the market. With markets pricing in less than a 30% chance of a hike in September, it therefore is unlikely that the Fed will hike now. Indeed, our US economists have maintained their view for a December hike."

Get It Done: "A hike next Thursday would lead to accelerated EM weakness, in our view. Current account surplus and net foreign asset-supported FX such as EUR and JPY may rally should the Fed hike; these currencies have developed an increasingly tight inverse relationship with the performance of risky assets."

Or Wait: "The Fed delaying action would be in line with current market pricing. In this scenario, USD would likely soften somewhat and the Fed would remain data-dependent in the statement and in the Chair’s press conference. Nonetheless, USD dips still represent buying opportunities as the reason for USD strength is mainly USD-supportive repatriation flows."