GOLD Technical Analysis 2015, 30.08 - 06.09: ranging within bullish resistance and bearish support

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.09.01 15:17

What Fed Officials Are Saying About a September Rate Increase (based on wsj article)

"Federal Reserve officials made clear in recent days they have not agreed on when to start raising short-term interest rates, and the possibility of a September move remains on the table. The odds of a rate increase next month have appeared to diminish amid worries about China’s economic slowdown and turmoil in financial markets. Some officials want to see more economic data before deciding, while others think they’ve waited long enough. The most powerful decision maker, Chairwoman Janet Yellen, has not commented on the topic in the past few days. Here are some key quotes from those who have."

• Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer: "I will not and indeed cannot tell you what decision the Fed will reach by Sept. 17."
• New York Fed President William Dudley: "At this moment, the decision to begin the normalization process at the September [Federal Open Market Committee] meeting seems less compelling to me than it did several weeks ago."
• St. Louis Fed President James Bullard: "I’m willing to respect the volatility in markets and see how it shakes out here. But just sitting here today, I’m not seeing how this is going to change the forecast and therefore I think the contours of monetary policy are about the same today as they were a couple weeks ago."
• Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester: "I think the economy can support a modest increase in interest rates. I want to take the time I have between now and the September meeting to evaluate all the economic information that's come in, including the recent volatility in the markets and the reasons behind that. But it hasn't so far changed my basic outlook that the U.S. economy is solid and it could support an increase in interest rates."
• Kansas City Fed President Esther George: "In my own view, the normalization process needs to begin and the economy is performing in a way that I think it is prepared to take that."
• Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart: "We are sort of anxious to get going, but given the events of the last several weeks, a risk factor has arisen” …“It has to be considered an open question whether we move now or wait a little while."
• Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota: "It’s definitely premature to be thinking about the removal of accommodation in the form of lifting off, at least based on my current outlook for inflation."

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.09.01 18:18

Gold Prices Higher as Possible Fed Rate Rise Seen Later (based on wsj article)

• "Gold prices were higher on the London spot market Tuesday, as the potential timing of an impending U.S. interest rate raise continued to move into the long grass."
• "Spot gold prices were up 0.7% at $1,142.11 a troy ounce in morning European trade, having hit a four-day high earlier in the session at $1,144.28 an ounce."
• "Long-held expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise rates in September have reduced among market participants given some wobbles in key economic data."

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.09.02 17:43

Gold Prices Slip on Strong Dollar (based on wsj article)

• "Gold prices edged lower on Wednesday as a stronger dollar and gains in equity markets tempered investor appetite for the haven asset."
• "The most actively traded contract, for December delivery, was recently down 70 cents, or 0.1%, at $1,139.10 a troy ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange."
• "Gold rallied to a one-week high on Tuesday as turbulence in global stocks and fears of an economic downturn in China sparked a rush to assets perceived as low risk, like precious metals. Gold doesn’t derive its value from a country or government and has historically weathered financial and economic upheaval better than stocks and bonds, whose value is backed by private or public institutions."
• "But as stability returns to global stock markets, gold’s allure is fading. The S&P 500 stocks index was recently up 1% at 1933, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 1.1% at 16,236."