AUDUSD Weekly Outlook - descending triangle pattern to be broken for bearish breakdown

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.03 11:19

Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken: Outlooks For EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, SP500 (based on efxnews article)

EURUSD: rejection from the 55-day MA
'The up and down move on Friday became the third consecutive rejection from the 55d ma band (since the return below it a month ago). The behavior is showing that bearish forces are at play and increasingly so given the return to a negative slope. We are thus looking for additional selling.'

USDJPY: new attempt to be above the key level
'Given the violation of the B-wave high (and a three wave setback from Thursday’s peak) there’s a high probability of a soon more successful break higher (targeting a new trend high). For today we see 124.37 as the trigger point for the next step higher.'

AUDUSD: Signs for sellers
'The spinning candle (small net move and big spikes to both sides) and the spring bottom are both signs of exhaustive sellers. There’s clearly a potential for the pair to bounce back to retest the 2001 trend line (or even back up to the 0.75- area) during the coming week.'

S&P 500: Higher again
'As long as the recent correction low remains unbroken a positive view should be kept in place (the July candle also developed into a mildly bullish piercing pattern). The entire structure since May can also be seen as an inverted head and shoulders formation, here seen as an upside continuation pattern.'

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.04 09:54

• past data is 2.00%
• forecast data is 2.00%
• actual data is 2.00% according to the latest press release

if hawkish > expected = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

More hawkish than expected = Good for currency

[AUD - Cash Rate and RBA Rate Statement] = Interest rate charged on overnight loans between financial intermediaries. Short term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation - traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how rates will change in the future. RBA Rate Statement is among the primary tools the RBA Reserve Bank Board uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy. It contains the outcome of their decision on interest rates and commentary about the economic conditions that influenced their decision. Most importantly, it discusses the economic outlook and offers clues on the outcome of future decisions.

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"The Federal Reserve is expected to start increasing its policy rate later this year, but some other major central banks are continuing to ease policy. Hence, global financial conditions remain very accommodative. Despite fluctuations in markets associated with the respective developments in China and Greece, long-term borrowing rates for most sovereigns and creditworthy private borrowers remain remarkably low."

"The Board today judged that leaving the cash rate unchanged was appropriate at this meeting. Further information on economic and financial conditions to be received over the period ahead will inform the Board's ongoing assessment of the outlook and hence whether the current stance of policy will most effectively foster sustainable growth and inflation consistent with the target."

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AUDUSD M5: 94 pips price movement by AUD - Cash Rate news event :