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-Yes, but we see the risks currently as relatively low. Our base case remains a gradual devaluation to 6.90 against the USD at year-end. --A domestic debt crisis could be one trigger, although the government appears to have the fiscal space to recapitalize the banks...
1. Deposit rate: current -0.30% SG forecast: -20bp to -0.50% Consensus: -10bp Forecast range: no change to -20bp 2. Asset purchase programme : current €60bn/month until March 2017 (sovereign, ABS, CB) SG forecast: no change...
EUR/USD: Neutral: Still neutral with key levels at 1.0900 and 1.0100. There is not much to add as the recent short-term EUR strength struggles to maintain its momentum. The outlook is still viewed as neutral and as mentioned in recent updates, only a strong daily closing above 1...
EUR/GBP: Bearish Mood Intact After Upbeat UK Data The EUR/GBP pair is looking to extend losses after the data in the UK showed manufacturing output improved higher than estimates in January. Eyes 0.77 handle The cross appears on track to test psychological support level of 0.77...
GBP/USD Advances Above 1.4200 Post-UK Data The sterling has now recovered the smile after mixed UK releases, lifting GBP/USD to test session highs near 1.4240. GBP/USD keeps 1.4200 on data Spot is now extending its bounce off session lows in the 1...
GBP/JPY Retakes 160.00 Handle Ahead of UK Data The buying interest in Sterling spiked ahead of the UK data release, pushing the GBP/JPY pair back above 160.00 levels. Trades positive on the day The cross now trades moderately positive on the day near 160.20 levels...
USD/CAD Off Highs, Back Near 1.3400 USD/CAD has faded the initial spike to daily peaks in the mid-1.3400s, coming back to challenge the critical support at 1.3400 the figure. USD/CAD attention to oil, BoC Crude oil prices have abandoned the area of recent highs beyond the $38...
GBP/USD Turns Positive Ahead of UK Data The bid tone around Sterling strengthened, pushing the GBP/USD pair higher on the day to 1.4222 levels ahead of the UK manufacturing production data. Supported by 23.6% Fibo level Pair flirted with 1.4178 (23.6% of 1.3835-1...
Calculated level for today: Support (S1 / S2 / S3 = 39,45 / 38,94 / 38,12), resistance (R1 / R2 / R3 = 41,09 / 60 / 42.42). Key level (1st from 39.66 to 40.56 at the end of the day, the 2nd of 38.80 to 39.31...
Technical Analysis of EUR/JPY for March 9, 20169 General overview for 09/03/2016: There is still a chance for a possible leading diagonal structure to develop. This scenario is valid as long as the level of 123.09 is not violated. The market should rally upward towards the level of 124...
Technical Analysis of USD/CAD for March 9, 2016 General overview for 09/03/2016: The bullish divergence had pushed the price above the weekly pivot at 1.3395, but the market wasn't strong enough to break out above the intraday resistance at 1.3497...
Canadian Dollar Off Early Lows Vs Euro and U.S. Dollar The Canadian dollar trimmed its early losses against the euro and the U.S. dollar in pre-European trading on Wednesday. The loonie recovered to 1.4731 against the euro and 1.3418 against the greenback, from its early low of 1...
EUR/USD: Sell Rallies Towards 1.12 – Westpac Strategists at Westpac have recommended selling the pair on rallies towards the 1.1200 area. Key Quotes “EUR/USD materially overvalued against 2yr Bund-Tsy spreads, the latter suggesting 1.05/06 is more "reasonable". “That said a run at 1...
EUR/USD Forecast: Cautious Ahead of ECB – Commerzbank and UOB EUR/USD has retreated to the 1.0970 region after being rejected once again from the critical area around 1.1050, where sits the key 200-day sma, all ahead of tomorrow’s ECB meeting...
EUR/JPY Deflates to Lows Near 123.50 The now offered tone around the European currency is dragging EUR/JPY lower on Wednesday, testing the area of daily lows in the mid-123.00s...
On Wednesday, two central banks of countries, currencies of which are traded in Forex, will hold meetings and announce their decisions on monetary policy. These are the Bank of Canada and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. What to expect from these events...
AUD: Consumer Sentiment Eased Back - TDS Research Team at TDS, notes that the Australia’s March consumer sentiment eased back to 99.1 after the inexplicable +4.2% to 101.3 in Feb. Key Quotes “A small fall was not a surprise, and 99.1 remains within the range of recent months...
AUD: Failing Fundamental Tests of Strength - ANZ Daniel Been, Senior FX Strategist at ANZ, suggests that the AUD has remained remarkably resilient which has driven the AUD back into territory that suggests it is overvalued...
USD/JPY Bulls Rescued by Stronger USD, Recovers to 112.70 Having bottomed out near 112.40 region, the USD/JPY pair almost reversed the entire slide seen post-Tokyo open and now aims to test 113 handle. USD/JPY finds support near Tuesday’s low The major once again attempts recovery from 112...
