The European Council Meeting in Brussels starts today and Brexit negotiations will resume at night. Now the arrangement lies in the hands of all 27 EU members that will vote tomorrow. Further progress today is not expected...
Even after raising interest rates during its MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) on 13 September, the CBRT (Central Bank of Turkey) failed to convince market participants sufficiently. Key issues relating to spreading inflation, shown by the September CPI (Consumer Price Index) at 24...
World equities idled on the first trading of the week as investors continued to have mixed feelings. Half of Europe's markets ended wearing green, while the other half headed lower. In the US, only the Russell 2000 – a small-cap stock index – was able to keep its head above water as it rose 0.41...
British pound optimism is over. EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier’s optimistic rhetoric is now sounding more concerned. After meeting with Brexit Secretary of State Dominic Raab in a one-hour meeting on Sunday, the tone of the negotiations has drastically changed...
After a painful last week, equities fell further on Monday with Asian markets blinking red across the screen. The Nikkei fell 1.87%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slid 1.50...
China’s trade surplus with the US continues to reach record highs, at USD 34 billion in September from August’s USD 31 billion. It’s probably unsustainable, as the Trump Administration’s tariffs on USD 200 billion of Chinese goods went live on 24 September...
USDJPY spent the summer recoupling with interest rates. The JPY weakness helped the Nikkei rise nearly 2000 point in September. Yet, recent risk-sell which strengthened JPY, has eliminated most of the early gains...
The South African rand is still under pressure. Economic growth remains sluggish, while inflation continues to overshoot a target of 3-6...
The single currency has been unable to reverse the greenback’s strong momentum yet. EUR/USD is stuck below the 1.15 threshold, as investors remain worried about the potential negative outcome of the clash between Italy and the EU regarding the Italian budget...
As US sanctions against Iran crude exports are approaching, exports from the Islamic Republic are slowing down...
Markets are nervously watching US rates. 10-year yields are now at 3.25% (climbing over 80 bps in a month) with little sight of weakening. 2-year yields are stuck around 2.87%. The economy is growing at 3.2-3.5% with no real loss of momentum...
The Italian budget situation took centre stage on Monday morning as traders return from the weekend. The FTSE MIB gave up another 1.80% to reach 19,962 points, its lowest level since April 2017. In the bond market, the country’s sovereign yields accelerated Friday’s upward trend...
Markets expect the USA unemployment rate to have eased to 3.8% in September. Non-Farm payrolls should have eased to 185,000 from 204,000 in the previous month. Average hourly earnings are expected to have edged down to 2.8% from 2.9% in August. All indicators have been on green in the job market...
Analysts are attributing the increase to a strong US economy, hawkish Fed comments, technical factors or even possible demand for return premia. Yet, significant corporate issuance, higher dollar funding basis and even mortgage convexity hedging issues could all have pushed the curve...
Inflation in Turkey blew out expectations, with the core reading up to 24.5% and producer prices hitting 46%. Oddly, TRY is stable, which must mean markets are confident the Central Bank of Turkey will fix it. So the CBT must hike...
Strong economic data sent US yields higher across the board. 10-year treasuries surged to 3.225%, adding 0.12% overnight. USD bulls charged, bidding up the greenback versus developed and developing currencies alike. Worries of a slowdown trade tensions were nowhere to be found...
The Turkish lira took another hit on Wednesday amid disappointing inflation figures. Headline inflation measure broke another record in September as it climbed to 24.52%y/y, beating widely market’s estimate of 21.10% and up from 17.90% in August...
Market sat through a directionless market as no real issues took center stage. Global equities were mixed as movement was based on idiosyncratic events. Overall there remains a slightly bias to be risk off...
After a year of tense and extremely public negotiations Mexico, Canada and the United States have reached an agreement to modernize NAFTA. With more than 1,800 pages the USMCA (aka US, Mexico, Canada Agreement) is a daunting document...
