Bearing the American dollar, the Australian dollar may have limited the negative side US President Trump announced yesterday that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard was in line as a "foreign terrorist organization", increasing geopolitical risks.
The numbers were smooth and dropped to the 97.05 level to close.
In terms of market prospects, the United States announced on Friday that there were 196,000 new non-farm jobs in March, but the average hourly wage increase fell to 0.1%.
The data reflect that the US economy is not as pessimistic as market expectations, or is favorable to market sentiment, reducing the attractiveness of the US dollar as a safe-haven currency.
In addition, we expect the Fed to stop raising interest rates this year, or even end its balance-sheet policy in September, which could be negative for the medium and long-term dollar's performance.
For the Australian dollar, we believe that current market expectations for Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate cuts are too early to say, and the authorities have an opportunity to continue to maintain interest rates.
Change or support the Australian dollar. However, it should be noted that the Reserve Bank of Australia may not have the opportunity to raise interest rates until the end of 2020.
Negative meta factors.
Technically, since April last year, the Australian dollar against the US dollar has remained subject to 200 antennas, and the current level is around 0.7198. If it increases for 200 days Line, the upward trend has the opportunity to accelerate, being able to rise and fall in the range of 0.7003-0.7394 in the short term.
EUR outlook:
• We expect the ECB to provide additional accommodation. EUR
strength may be limited in the short term, but we think that the implications for the EUR are limited. In the medium term, the EUR may outperform. First, increased fiscal / current account deficits may eventually generate portfolio balance pressure on assets in $ generally over time. Second, stronger FDI and reserve manager purchase at EA than anticipated.
GBP is cheap, which is about 15% below its long-term average.
Despite this, the UK is behind the G10 complex in terms of momentum, the currency has been reasonably supported by its valuation. However, it is the policy response to the poor momentum economy that is likely to limit significant gains for the GBP in the medium term. I predict that MPC will enter negative territory in 2H 2021.
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