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EURUSD Intra-Day Technical Analysis - bearish breakdown or bullish breakout?

17 September 2015, 10:24

Sergey Golubev

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H4 price is located above 100 period SMA (100-SMA) and above 200 period SMA (200-SMA) for the primary bullish market condition for the secondary ranging within the following key levels:

1. Intermediate levels.

1.1320 resistance level which is crossed by the price for now from below to above for 1.1379 as the next bullish target;
1.1213 support level located between 100-SMA and 200-SMA in the ranging area of the chart between the bearish and bullish condition;
1.1121 support level located just below 200-SMA in the bearish area of H4 chart in the beginning of the bearish trend to be started if crossed.

2. Key reversal levels.

1.1379 key bullish reversal level located far above 200-SMA in the primary bullish zone; if the price breaks this level from below to above so we may see good bullish breakout;
1.1064 key support level located far below 200-SMA in the primary bearish zone; if the price breaks this level from above to below so we may see good bearish breakdown.

Resistance	Support
1.1320	1.1121
1.1379	1.1064

Recommendation for long: watch close H4 price to break 1.1379 for possible buy trade
Recommendation to go short: watch H4 price to break 1.1064 support level for possible sell trade
Trading Summary: ranging

SUMMARY : waiting to break the levels

#eurusd, market condition, technical analysis, Ichimoku

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Sergey Golubev 2015.09.17 11:01 #1

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.09.17 12:57

How To Trade The FOMC - Credit Agricole (based on efxnews article)

"USD longs funded in low yielding currencies like CHF seem still attractive in our view. A Fed hike could boost the USD but may not necessarily trigger a sharp risk selloff. As a result the likes of EUR, CHF and JPY need not receive a massive boost. We like being long USD against CHF in particular because the positive correlation between CHF and risk aversion has been weakening recently."
"If the Fed doesn't hike and signal a lower glide path for Fed fund rates while downgrading its core inflation and unemployment projections, chances are that risk appetite could recover some more. While we could see investors unwinding decoupling trades and USD underperforming, we doubt that this will be sustained as markets will continue to see any decision to keep rates unchanged as delaying the inevitable. Under this scenario, the USD may lose some ground against EUR, CHF and JPY initially but the underperformance should be ultimately capped by the prospects for more policy divergence (eg more ECB QE) and resilient risk appetite. We think that USD/CHF should hold up well as EUR appreciates against both CHF and USD. When it comes to risk-correlated or commodity currencies, we doubt that any of them could regain ground on a sustained basis, given the lingering risks from China and the Fed."
"GBP could be among the more resilient currencies today especially if the Fed boosts investors’ demand for decoupling trades. Indeed, accelerating wage growth in the UK and increasingly hawkish rhetoric from the BoE has helped GBP regain some ground of late."