TUTORIAL DIGEST: Currency Correlation - the theory, free indicators, HowTo use with trading and to predict the direction of the market

How to use the currency pairs correlation to predict the direction of the market?

When I have a signal with a pair, but I need confirmation to take the position, I refer to the correlated currency pairs or cross currency pairs and look for the confirmation. For example I see a MACD Divergence in USDCAD four hours chart but there is no close support breakout in USDCAD four hours or one hour chart. I want to take a short position but I just need a confirmation. If I wait for the confirmation, it can become too late and I may miss the chance. I check a correlated currency pair like USDSGD and if I see a support breakout in it, I take the short position with USDCAD. Now the question is why I don’t take the short position with USDSGD and I use its support breakout to go short with USDCAD? I do it because USDCAD movements are stronger and more profitable. I use USDSGD just as an indicator to trade USCAD.

It happens that you take a position with a currency pair, but it doesn’t work properly and you don’t know if it was a good decision or not. On the other hand, you don’t see any sharp signal on that currency pair to help you decide if you want to keep the position or close it. In such cases, you can check a correlated currency pair and look for a continuation or reversal signal. It helps you to decide about the position you have.

Sometimes, some correlated currency pairs don’t move in the way that they are supposed to move. For example EURUSD and USDJPY go up at the same time, whereas they usually move against each other. It can happen when Euro value goes up and USD value doesn’t have a significant change, but at the same time JPY value goes down, because of some reason. In these cases, you can use the below table to find and trade the currency pair that its movement is intensified by an unusual movement in two other currency pairs. In this example, if EURUSD and USDJPY go up at the same time, EURJPY will go up much stronger (see the below chart).

Or if EURUSD goes up and AUDUSD goes down at the same time, EUR-AUD goes up strongly.

Another important example: If EURUSD goes up and GBPUSD goes down at the same time, EURGBP goes up strongly. Maybe this is the most important case that we can trade based on this rule. It happens many times that EURUSD and GBPUSD move against each other and that is the best time to trade EURGBP. Now you know why EURGBP doesn’t move strongly most of the time. It is because EURUSD and GBPUSD move in the same direction most of the time. For example they go up at the same time and so EURGBP doesn’t show any significant movement because when both of the currencies of a currency pair go up or down at the same time, that currency pair doesn’t show any strong movement and direction (I hope you know why a currency pair goes up or down. It goes up when the first currency value goes up OR the second currency value goes down. For example EURUSD goes up, if Euro value goes up or USD value goes down. If this happens at the same time, then EURUSD goes up much stronger).

The below chart includes almost all of these unusual movements and their results on the third currency pair.

View forex correlations to the SPDR Gold ETF Trust (GLD), United States Oil Fund ETF (USO), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA), UK FTSE 100 Index, and IShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) prices:

XAUUSD/AUDUSD :

XAGUSD/USDCAD :

Download Currency Correlation indicator for free here

--------

Currency Correlations Video

Part #1

Part #2