Talking Points:
- USDOLLAR continues to fail at new highs between 11850-11900
- Trend support keeps bulls in control, but for how much longer?
- Sentiment measure shows record extreme in longs vs. shorts
In recent weeks, USDOLLAR has maintained trend support, however; it has been rejected several times near the 2009 high of 11854. The struggle between the bulls and bears is real, which side will prevail? At this time, given the number of failures taking place at new highs, I am inclined to believe the sellers are starting to slowly win the battle. As stated before, though, I will continue to trust the rising trend-line extending back to October, however; that trust is quickly wearing thin.
Sentiment, as measured by futures market positioning (COT), shows record extremes in long USD positioning.With so many market participants leaning long, once the USD starts bucking the trend it will have the fuel (longs selling) to cause a sizable decline.
