China January trade balance at +$60.03bn (vs. expected $48.90bn)

China trade balance for January … a surplus of $60.03Bn

• A big beat of expectations (huge drop in imports), the consensus was at $48.09bn
• Prior was $49.61bn
• 
  

Exports for January:-3.3%

• expected +5.9%, prior was +9.7%

Imports for January:-19.9%

• expected -3.2%, prior was -2.4%
• Decline led by a sharp fall in commodity imports
• Coal imports dropped nearly 40& from December
• Crude oil imports down 7.9 percent on the month

More (via Reuters):

• Seasonal distortions due to the Lunar New Year holiday make it difficult to interpret the data
• Last year the holiday fell in January, and this year it falls in February
• China’s export numbers tend to be erratic, sharp moves in opposite directions are common and the combined January and February figures are often a more accurate gauge of the overall trend, analysts say
• 
  

–

The seasonal/New Year distortion, which argues for waiting for the February data before making firm conclusion, is reasonable. Nevertheless, the huge drop in imports on the month is not going to be viewed as a positive input to the AUD market.