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Although the commodity complex has been more stable recently and that has removed some downside pressure on the euro via the disinflation channel, we anticipate that other factors will soon come into play. First, the extent of dovish stance by the US FOMC in March took us by surprise...
Analytics & Forecasts
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Vasilii Apostolidi, 1 April 2016, 12:22
US Nonfarm Payrolls (MAR) - Fri 4/1 - 08:30 AM ET BofAML: The March employment report likely showed another strong month for the labor market. We anticipate a healthy 190,000 gain in nonfarm payrolls, with the private sector contributing 185,000...
Analytics & Forecasts
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Vasilii Apostolidi, 1 April 2016, 12:02
The global impact of US monetary policy [was] evident from the market reaction to Fed Chair Janet Yellen's dovish message this week. Yellen underlined the FOMC's cautious message from a fortnight before. In so doing, she threw more fuel onto the ongoing risk rally...
Analytics & Forecasts
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Vasilii Apostolidi, 1 April 2016, 11:59 #EUR/USD
GBP/USD Extends the Drop to 1.4320 The sterling remains on the defensive on Friday, now sending GBP/USD to the 1.4320 area, or session lows. GBP/USD lower post-PMI, focus on US data The pair is prolonging its recent downside after being rejected from Wednesday’s peaks near 1...
Analytics & Forecasts
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Roberto Jacobs, 1 April 2016, 11:55
Daily Analysis of Major Pairs for April 1, 2016 EUR/USD: This currency trading instrument has trended upward by 250 pips, testing the resistance line at 1.4000...
Analytics & Forecasts
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Roberto Jacobs, 1 April 2016, 11:52
EUR/USD: Neutral: Bullish if daily close above 1.1400. The break above the major 1.1375 resistance bodes well for EUR. We have been reluctant in turning bullish but a daily close above 1...
Chinese business activity data to be released Friday morning should be markets’ key focus ahead of US labor data. Overall, we expect both official (CFLP) and onshore private sector (Caixin) measures for manufacturing, and the official (CFLP) services index, to show a modest uptick...
Analytics & Forecasts
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Vasilii Apostolidi, 1 April 2016, 11:48
EUR/USD Gathers Pace, Takes-out 1.1400 ahead of NFP The bullish tone behind the EUR gathers pace in the European session, now taking EUR/USD above 1.14 handle, as risk-off sentiment and upbeat PMIs underpin. EUR/USD higher on cross driven strength Currently, EUR/USD trades +0...
Analytics & Forecasts
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Roberto Jacobs, 1 April 2016, 11:43
UK Manufacturing Growth Improves Less Than Expected British manufacturing growth improved less-than-expected in March, though slightly, survey figures from Markit Economic showed Friday...
Market News
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Roberto Jacobs, 1 April 2016, 11:41
BOJ’s Sakurai: Current Yen Not Too High vs its Level in 2012 Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) Sakurai, while commenting on exchange rate said the current level of Yen is not too highs compared to the one seen in 2012...
Currency
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Roberto Jacobs, 1 April 2016, 11:27
Canadian FinMin: Not Considering Further Measures to Tackle Housing Market Risks Speaking in London, Canadian finance ministry Morneau commented on Canada’s overall economic conditions as well as on oil markets...
Analytics & Forecasts
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Roberto Jacobs, 1 April 2016, 11:25
GBP/JPY Drops Below 161.00 After UK PMI Data A weaker-than-expected UK PMI manufacturing PMI is keeping GBP/JPY under pressure below 161.00 handle. Rejected at 161.73 The cross was rejected at 161.73 (falling trend line resistance on the daily chart) following which it fell to a low of 160...
Analytics & Forecasts
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Roberto Jacobs, 1 April 2016, 11:22
Eurozone Manufacturing Growth Improves In March Eurozone manufacturing growth improved more than initially estimated in March, final data from Markit showed Friday. The factory Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 51.6 in March from 51.2 in February and above the flash score of 51.4...
Analytics & Forecasts
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Roberto Jacobs, 1 April 2016, 11:19
USD/JPY Still Vulnerable – Commerzbank In opinion of Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, the door remains open for further downside below 111.97. Key Quotes “USD/JPY’s correction higher has failed at the top of a 6 week channel at 113...
Analytics & Forecasts
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Roberto Jacobs, 1 April 2016, 11:17
EUR/GBP Hits Fresh 16-Month Highs on UK PMI The EUR/GBP cross caught a fresh bid tone following the release of worse-than expected UK manufacturing PMI report, which weighed on the British pound. EUR/GBP eyes 0.8000 Currently, the EUR/GBP pair trades 0.33% higher at fresh 16-month highs of 0...
Analytics & Forecasts
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Roberto Jacobs, 1 April 2016, 11:15
GBP/USD Bullish Above 1.4270 – UOB In view of the research team at UOB Group, GBP/USD points to further gains while above 1.4270. Key Quotes “While the undertone for GBP remains positive as long as the 1.4250 support is intact, this pair has to break clearly above 1...
Analytics & Forecasts
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Roberto Jacobs, 1 April 2016, 11:13
GBP/USD Weaker, Around 1.4340 on PMI The sterling is trading on a weaker note today, with GBP/USD hovering over the 1.4350/55 band. GBP/USD keeps the red on UK data The pair has posted losses in the last three sessions, coming back from recent highs in the 1...
Analytics & Forecasts
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Roberto Jacobs, 1 April 2016, 11:11
UK Manufacturing PMI Stays Around 34-Month Low in March The seasonally adjusted Markit/CIPS Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) printed at 51.00 in March missing the estimate of 51.2, but bettering the Feb figure of 50.8. Key points The quarterly average stayed at a relatively subdued level of 51...
Market News
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Roberto Jacobs, 1 April 2016, 11:10
EUR/JPY Attempting Break Above 128.00 EUR/JPY cross recovered from the Asian session low of 127.43, and is now looking to take out offers around 128.00 handle amid stock market losses and upward revision of German and Eurozone PMI figures...
Analytics & Forecasts
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Roberto Jacobs, 1 April 2016, 11:07
EUR/USD Forecast: it’s All about Payrolls – Dansk Bank and UOB EUR/USD remains in the upper-1.1300s during the European morning, easing some pips from yesterday’s multi-month tops above the 1.1400 handle. The research team at UOB Group has suggested “The break above the major 1...
Analytics & Forecasts
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Roberto Jacobs, 1 April 2016, 10:13