Greek referendum this weekend - when the early result be available

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2015.07.03 21:01

A short Cheat-Sheet For Trading Greek Referendum In FX - Credit Suisse (based on efxnews article)

1- "Victory of the “No” camp, would immediately cast markets in uncharted territory. The vote alone might not necessarily trigger a systemic reaction, but we would expect the increase in uncertainty to weigh on EUR and on risk assets, with surging demand for “safe haven” currencies such USD, CHF, JPY and GBP," CS projects.

2- In the event of a “Yes” vote, we think the likely knee-jerk move higher in EURUSD would likely be short-lived.  The victory of the “Yes” camp, would likely have a more limited impact on monetary policy stances outside of the Euro area, in our view. In other words, the removal of the immediate risk of a potentially systemic event would allow markets to refocus on the policy divergence story," CS adds.

3- "Finally, while a “yes” victory would reduce the immediate risk of a Greek exit from the euroarea, many aspects of the post-vote outlook would remain very uncertain. As an example, a minimally reworked extension of the now expired Greek bailout terms could be viewed by markets as insufficient to prevent renewed flaring up of peripheral risk later this year," CS argues.

4- "We remain firmly of the view that this story remains EUR bearish," CS concludes.

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2015.07.05 08:01

EUR/USD Forecast July 6-10 – Another Greek climate (based on forexcrunch article)

EUR/USD had a wild week, moving on the deterioration of the crisis, but not always in the most straightforward manner. The new week begins with the Greek referendum and continues with data from Germany and France. Greece will certainly remains in the headlines throughout the week. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

Greek summary: the announcement of the referendum was followed by the Eurogroup rejecting a short term extension, the ECB capping assistance to Greek banks and triggering capital controls. This escalation resulted in a Sunday gap for the euro, but it found ways to recover and even rally. We then had ongoing negotiations, the eventual default of Greece to the IMF, more offers as both sides stopped talking and awaited the Greferendum, the IMF came out suggesting debt restructuring. For the latest, see: Greek crisis – all the updates in one place

In other news, euro-zone inflation slowed to 0.2% as expected and PMIs also came out within expectations. The US gained 223K jobs in June, slightly below expectations but revisions were negative and the bigger disappointment came from wages. Nevertheless, the Fed seems to be on track for a hike in September, but Greece is having a growing impact also on Yellen.

1. Greek referendum: Sunday. Exit polls expected in the European afternoon, well before markets open, with full results later on. The referendum, now dubbed #Greferendum, has been announced by Greek PM Alexis Tsipras on June 26th and is on the creditors’ proposal that was described by Greece as “take it or leave it”. The Greek government rejected it and calls for a vote against it. It is unclear if this proposal is still on the table. Some European leaders have described it as a vote on euro-zone membership. What’s clear is that it is a vote on the current government’s future. A Yes vote, which is more likely due to the deteriorating situation in Greece, will likely result in a relief rally, as it opens the door to a new government that will accept whatever it’s told. A No vote complicates the situation and could result in a big fall for the euro. The referendum is one climax, but the Greek crisis is set to accompany us throughout the week. Polls look too close to call.
2. German Factory Orders: Monday, 6:00. Europe’s powerhouse has seen a rise of 1.4% in April, better than expected. Despite usually being a volatile figure, this indicator has an impact. No change is expected now.
3. Retail PMI: Monday, 8:10. Markit’s measure for the retail sector finally edged up to the growth zone. It topped 50 points in May and hit 51.4 points. A similar number is on the cards for May.
4. Sentix Investor Confidence: Monday, 8:30. This survey of 2000 analysts and investors fell for the second time in June and fell to 17.1 points, below expectation. Nevertheless, it remained in positive territory, reflecting optimism. A score of 15.6 points is on the cards now.
5. German Industrial Production: Tuesday, 6:00. As with factory orders, also industrial output was good in April, advancing 0.9% and enjoying an upwards revision. A smaller change is on the cards now: +0.1%.
6. French Trade Balance: Tuesday, 6:45. The continent’s second largest economy has seen its trade deficits shrinking from the highs. In April, it reached a level of 3 billion euros, the lowest since 2009. A similar number is on the cards now: a deficit of 3.3 billion.
7. German Trade Balance: Thursday, 6:00. Contrary to France, Germany enjoys surpluses in the euro era. This surplus reached 22.3 billion euros in April, higher than expected and the highest so far this year. For May, a surplus of 20.6 billion is expected.
8. French Industrial Production: Friday, 6:45. In the past two months, France reported a contraction in the most recent industrial output data, but these were countered by positive revisions. For April, production fell by 0.9%. A bounce back is on the cards now: +0.5%.

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2015.07.05 08:01

EUR/USD Forecast July 6-10 – Another Greek climate (based on forexcrunch article)

EUR/USD had a wild week, moving on the deterioration of the crisis, but not always in the most straightforward manner. The new week begins with the Greek referendum and continues with data from Germany and France. Greece will certainly remains in the headlines throughout the week. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

Greek summary: the announcement of the referendum was followed by the Eurogroup rejecting a short term extension, the ECB capping assistance to Greek banks and triggering capital controls. This escalation resulted in a Sunday gap for the euro, but it found ways to recover and even rally. We then had ongoing negotiations, the eventual default of Greece to the IMF, more offers as both sides stopped talking and awaited the Greferendum, the IMF came out suggesting debt restructuring. For the latest, see: Greek crisis – all the updates in one place

In other news, euro-zone inflation slowed to 0.2% as expected and PMIs also came out within expectations. The US gained 223K jobs in June, slightly below expectations but revisions were negative and the bigger disappointment came from wages. Nevertheless, the Fed seems to be on track for a hike in September, but Greece is having a growing impact also on Yellen.

1. Greek referendum: Sunday. Exit polls expected in the European afternoon, well before markets open, with full results later on. The referendum, now dubbed #Greferendum, has been announced by Greek PM Alexis Tsipras on June 26th and is on the creditors’ proposal that was described by Greece as “take it or leave it”. The Greek government rejected it and calls for a vote against it. It is unclear if this proposal is still on the table. Some European leaders have described it as a vote on euro-zone membership. What’s clear is that it is a vote on the current government’s future. A Yes vote, which is more likely due to the deteriorating situation in Greece, will likely result in a relief rally, as it opens the door to a new government that will accept whatever it’s told. A No vote complicates the situation and could result in a big fall for the euro. The referendum is one climax, but the Greek crisis is set to accompany us throughout the week. Polls look too close to call.
2. German Factory Orders: Monday, 6:00. Europe’s powerhouse has seen a rise of 1.4% in April, better than expected. Despite usually being a volatile figure, this indicator has an impact. No change is expected now.
3. Retail PMI: Monday, 8:10. Markit’s measure for the retail sector finally edged up to the growth zone. It topped 50 points in May and hit 51.4 points. A similar number is on the cards for May.
4. Sentix Investor Confidence: Monday, 8:30. This survey of 2000 analysts and investors fell for the second time in June and fell to 17.1 points, below expectation. Nevertheless, it remained in positive territory, reflecting optimism. A score of 15.6 points is on the cards now.
5. German Industrial Production: Tuesday, 6:00. As with factory orders, also industrial output was good in April, advancing 0.9% and enjoying an upwards revision. A smaller change is on the cards now: +0.1%.
6. French Trade Balance: Tuesday, 6:45. The continent’s second largest economy has seen its trade deficits shrinking from the highs. In April, it reached a level of 3 billion euros, the lowest since 2009. A similar number is on the cards now: a deficit of 3.3 billion.
7. German Trade Balance: Thursday, 6:00. Contrary to France, Germany enjoys surpluses in the euro era. This surplus reached 22.3 billion euros in April, higher than expected and the highest so far this year. For May, a surplus of 20.6 billion is expected.
8. French Industrial Production: Friday, 6:45. In the past two months, France reported a contraction in the most recent industrial output data, but these were countered by positive revisions. For April, production fell by 0.9%. A bounce back is on the cards now: +0.5%.