EURUSD – Retail forex traders continue to buy aggressively into Euro weakness versus the US Dollar, and a contrarian view of ‘crowd’ sentiment leaves us firmly in favor of selling EUR/USD weakness. Last week we wrote much the same with one key caveat: the EUR may yet remain in its relatively narrow year-to-date trading range.

If history is any guide, we may expect the EUR/USD to match previous patterns and continue through to fresh lows trough near-term trading. And indeed we see little reason to abandon our bearish trading bias as long as our retail trader positioning data shows ‘the crowd’ continues to buy.