EUR/USD traded in range for some time, but eventually lost ground and closed under 1.24. Can it extend its falls further below 1.2356?The main events this week are the preliminary inflation releases, employment data as well as another German business survey is already out today. Here is an outlook on the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD. More details the Daily Webinar here.
EURUSD – My bias is to sell into any rallies which is see as capped by 1.2887. I await a 30 min close below 1.2356 to accelerate moves to the downside towards mutli-year support in the 1.20 area. Mario Draggi’s comments caused a 1% movement on Friday so let’s see what we get in terms of moves this week.
EURGBP- I made decent money selling this pair after last week’s bullish candle in an otherwise weekly downtrend that extends back all the way to late 2012. Any rallies in EURUSD will likely see this pair rally back toward 80 by which time I will be either selling the former or the later but not both at the same time.
USDRUB I made some money on this overnight too but for now will stand aside while we wait for the outcome of the OPEC meeting in Vienna this week. OPEC will want to keep pressure on US production by keeping the price low which also has the added benefit of keeping pressure on the Russian economy which they favour. Calls for cuts in production to raise the price may therefore fall on deaf ears. No change or an increase in production will likely see the Ruble decline further so know your levels. Last week’s range H 47.46 L 45.13, and we have already taken out last week’s low. Volatility around the Vienna meeting will likely cause volatility in the Ruble this week.
USDSGD I am having a close look at this pair today and may or may not pull the trigger to sell short. USDSGD is technically overbought weekly, daily, hourly and 30 mins. I have a limit order to tiptoe in at 1.3040.
Be careful out there!
