Against the backdrop of positive news regarding the outcome of negotiations between representatives of Ukraine and Russia, which ended in Turkey, the EUR/USD pair rose sharply on Tuesday, updating 4-week highs near 1.1136. Today the pair is also trying to develop an upward trend. However, it will be difficult for it to break above the important resistance level of 1.1150 without additional drivers.
Most likely, the pair is waiting for a rebound near this resistance level and the resumption of decline. The driver of this decline can be the important macro data from the US published today (at 12:15 and 12:30 GMT), if they turn out to be positive for the dollar.
Expectations of an early tightening of the ECB's monetary policy are currently the second most important factor (after the situation in Ukraine) influencing the dynamics of the euro. Accordingly, the growth of these expectations and progress towards the settlement of the military conflict in Ukraine, where Russia is conducting a military special operation to demilitarize and denazify, contribute to the strengthening of the euro and the growth of EUR/USD.
However, despite the current growth, so far we are sticking to the scenario for the resumption of EUR/USD decline, aggressive market participants will probably find it possible to enter short positions on EUR/USD already from the current levels.
Support levels: 1.1097, 1.1024, 1.1000, 1.0900, 1.0850, 1.0765, 1.0700, 1.0500, 1.0350
Resistance levels: 1.1150, 1.1200, 1.1285, 1.1300, 1.1350, 1.1430, 1.1500, 1.1550, 1.1740, 1.1780
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