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Thursday, June 14th
The EUR/USD pair is following widespread sentiment this Thursday, having spiked the level of 1.1800 in early Europe. Today the weakness of the US dollar remains the key driving factor across the market on the back not enough hawkish FOMC meeting. Yesterday, as it was widely expected the Fed raised its interest up to 2%. Moreover, the regular indicated two more rate hikes this year with a total of 4 rate hikes in 2018 instead of 3 and revised to upside its economic projections for this year. However, the regulator didn’t make any adjustments to the neutral level of interest rate, so the rate will reach its neutral level by the end of 2019. The market negatively reacted on this news, as it means that the Fed will only accelerate the policy tightening cycle, but not expand it. Another reason of dollar retreat can be called its overbought condition, as Fed hawkish decision was fully priced-in and investors locked in some profits after the meeting, sending the greenback lower. But for now all investors’ eye remain glued to the ECB meeting. No any changes in interest rate are expected, however, investors will eagerly await for any comments regarding the QE program tapering. Besides the ECB meeting and subsequent press conference, markets will also pay attention to the US retail sales data, which will be able to bring additional trading opportunities during the NA session.
The GBP/USD pair is extending its bullish trend, testing the level of 1.3400 in early Europe. Earlier this week, the pound received notable bullish impetus after the House of Commons rejected amendments to Brexit bill, which would allow the British parliament to take the control over the Brexit negotiations, thus supporting the government and decreasing uncertainty around further negotiation process. Also it is worthy of note that yesterday’s British inflation came in line with markets expectations that indicates some recovery in UK’s economy. However, another bullish factor for the pair today remains broad retreat of the US dollar, as markets found the outcome of the Fed meeting not enough hawkish. Despite the fact that the regulator increased its interest rate by 25 bps and pointed out additional rate hike this year, the Fed didn’t make any adjustments to neutral level of interest rate, which only indicates the acceleration of the tightening cycle, rather than its expansion. As for the economic data, today both economies will offer investors retail sales data, while the US dollar dynamics will also be able to form pair’s further direction.
The AUD/USD pair is moving in the north direction, having refreshed its intraday lows on the level of 0.7550, despite broad weakness of the US dollar. Today the main driving factor across the market remains sell-off of the greenback, triggered by not enough hawkish FOMC meeting. However, it seems that pair is failing to benefit from widespread sentiment on the back of reports from Australian labor market and Chinese industrial production data, which both came below market expectations, thereby sending the Australian currency to the negative territory. Looking ahead, today the US data calendar will offer us retail sales data, while risk-off sentiment, underpinned by weak Chinese data, will continue to influence the pair this Thursday.
The USD/JPY pair remains defensive this Thursday, testing the level of 110.00, on the back of several factors, which are pushing the pair to the negative territory. First, one of the main drivers today remains broad weakness of the US dollar, as markets found yesterday’s outcome of the Fed meeting not enough hawkish. As it was widely expected, the regulator increased its interest rate by 0.25%. Moreover, during the subsequent press conference Fed Chair J. Powell said that he sees two more rate hikes this year with a total of 4 rate hikes in 2018, but not indicating higher neutral rate, which means that the Fed will only accelerate its tightening cycle, but not expand it. Meanwhile, all markets attention shifts towards the next risky event – BoJ meeting, which will bring the divergence between monetary policies back to the fore. Also today, investors will pay attention to the US data, while the risk-off sentiment ahead of the key event will continue to form pair’s near-term trajectory this Thursday.
Major events of the day:
UK Retail Sales – 11.30 (GMT +3)
ECB Interest Rate Decision – 14.45 (GMT +3)
ECB Press Conference – 15.30 (GMT +3)
US Retail Sales – 15.30 (GMT +3)
Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1696 R. 1.1850
USDJPY S. 109.91 R. 111.07
GBPUSD S. 1.3269 R. 1.3455
USDCHF S. 0.9808 R. 0.9918
AUDUSD S. 0.7494 R. 0.7652
NZDUSD S. 0.6938 R. 0.7096
USDCAD S. 1.2897 R. 1.3095
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