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Thursday, April 12th
The EUR/USD pair stalled its upside rally, keeping positions today within tight range of 1.2355-80. Seems that US bulls finally found some support due to yesterday’s FOMC minutes, which showed a more hawkish bias. The Committee agreed that economic outlook had strengthened in recent months and gradual rate hikes is appropriate. However, despite better outlook of the economy, Fed members agreed that current rate hike plan doesn’t need any adjustments. In general, we can say that the FOMC minutes showed positive stance of the Committee regarding the monetary policy, which allowed the US dollar to stall its decline, thus limiting any further gains of the pair. On the other hand, today renewed demand for safety remains the key driving theme across the market on the back of rising fears of US-Russia war over Syria, which offers some support to the shared currency this Thursday. Looking ahead, now its ECB’s turn to publish minutes from the last meeting, which are expected during the European session, while the US will publish today only secondary data reports, which won’t be able to attract any attention.
The GBP/USD pair follows broad market trend and remains within yesterday’s trading range near the level of 1.4200, as several bearish factors are weighing the pair today. First, today renewed demand for safety came to a fore on the back of growing concerns over the Syria crisis. Moreover, the US dollar have finally stalled its broad retreat following yesterday’s FOMC minutes, where the Committee showed confidence over the US economic growth, which is another bearish factor for the pair. Today the US calendar will remain silent, so investors will focus their attention on the rhetoric of BoE Governor M.Carney, who will speak in the second half of the NA session.
The USD/JPY pair trades with a slight bullish bias this Thursday, recovering its recent losses. Seems that the US dollar stalled its broad retreat on the back of hawkish FOMC minutes, as the Fed revised its economic projections for growth, thus having forced the pair to change its direction. However, further growth looks limited, as market witnessed another swing in risk sentiment amid escalation of geopolitical conflict between the US and Russia. According to the latest tweets of Mr.Trump, the US is preparing air strike on Syria in response to chemical attack, which happened last weekend. However, Russia remains against these actions from the US side against Syria. In the data space, today nothing interesting is scheduled in the US economic calendar, so the pair will continue to follow broad market trend this Thursday.
The NZD/USD pair trades back and forth lately, however, remaining in the region of its 7-week highs, marked at 0.7378 spot a day before. The pair lost its bullish momentum and was showing subdued dynamics for the last two days on the back of renewed risk-off sentiment, triggered by instability in the Middle East. Adding to this, hawkish Fed minutes offered support to the US dollar yesterday, thus also lending some pressure on the pair. However, bullish trend of oil prices, which recently tested its 3-year tops, is supporting commodity-linked Kiwi, thereby limiting any retreat of the pair. Looking ahead, today the US data calendar won’t offer any relevant data reports, leaving the pair at the mercy of broad market trend.
Major events of the day:
ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting – 14.30 (GMT +3)
BoE Governor M.Carney’s Speech – 22.00 (GMT +3)
Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.2320 R. 1.2418
USDJPY S. 106.29 R. 107.49
GBPUSD S. 1.4124 R. 1.4250
USDCHF S. 0.9535 R. 0.9617
AUDUSD S. 0.7722 R. 0.7788
NZDUSD S. 0.7326 R. 0.7394
USDCAD S. 1.2502 R. 1.2660
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