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Thursday, April 20th
The EUR/USD pair is trading on firm note this Thursday, extending its bullish momentum in European morning after relatively quiet Asia. Pair’s recent bullishness could be mainly attributed to fresh USD selling, as US bulls were unable to retain its yesterday recovered positions. However, further gains seem fragile in wake of growing cautiousness among market’s participants, as we are heading toward main risky event of this week - French elections, that are scheduled on Sunday, where all presidential candidates have almost equal chances to win the election race. Focus now shifts towards the US macro news that are due later in the NA session, which will provide fresh impetus to the pair, while EU data calendar will keep silence during Thursday’s trading session.
Seems that the NZD/USD pair has managed to reverse most part of its previous session’s losses and to retake the region of 0.7050. Yesterday the pair reached the level of 0.7000 in wake of mild US dollar’s recovery against its main competitors, but failed to break through it. However, the pair was able to recover its decline, facing resistance at mid-point of 0.70 level, as better-than-expected NZ inflation report provided the pair with strong bullish impetus. Looking ahead, today expectedly the pair will keep trading under bearish pressure in wake of profit-taking actions, while US macroeconomic releases, scheduled in the day ahead, will set up pair’s further short-term course.
The GBP/USD pair broke out of its brief consolidation range, seen in early Asia, and now is building gains above the level of 1.28. Seems that US bulls are out of steam this Thursday, remaining unable to extend US dollar’s broad recovery, thereby allowing the pair to reverse its yesterday’s decline. Meanwhile, the market continues to cheer up the pound after UK PM T.May called in snap general election on June 8th, while slightly improved risk-on sentiments are also collaborating with pair’s upward movement. Today we have another data quiet UK docket, while US macro news due later in the NA session will be able to provide some fresh impetus to the pair. However, the main risky event for the pair remains BOE Governor M.Carney’s speech that is also scheduled on NA trades.
The USD/CAD pair is retreating from its monthly highs, posted yesterday at 1.3490, in wake of renewed sell off behind the buck. Yesterday the pair managed to refresh its 5-week highs, as sharp drop in oil prices, following red numbers of EIA Crude Oil Inventories, weighed heavily on commodity-linked assets, such as the Loonie. However, the US dollar is failing to extend its previous session’s recovery, thereby allowing bears to take control over the pair. Today only Philly Fed Manufacturing Index will be able to bring some impetus to the pair, so oil prices and US dollar’s dynamics will remain as key drivers for the pair during this trading session.
The main events of the day:
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index – 15.30 (GMT +3)
BoE Governor M.Carney’s speech – 18.30 (GMT +3)
Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.0677 R. 1.0753
USDJPY S. 107.98 R. 109.60
GBPUSD S. 1.2711 R. 1.2891
USDCHF S. 0.9940 R. 1.0012
AUDUSD S. 0.7445 R. 0.7587
NZDUSD S. 0.6961 R. 0.7073
USDCAD S. 1.3333 R. 1.3565
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