AUD: Employment Data Consistent with Macros – Deutsche Bank
Research Team at Deutsche Bank, notes that the Australia’s employment
rose 26.1k in March after a soft end to 2015 and start to 2016.
Key Quotes
“That
prior softness sees trend jobs growth (as estimated by the ABS) at
7.7k, weaker than our labour market tracker which suggests around 13k
jobs growth; while a model based estimate of employment shows much
weaker jobs growth in Q1-2016 than GDP or real wages growth would
suggest (after the reverse in Q4-2015).
The unemployment rate
fell to 5.7%; while across employment growth, hours worked, the change
in the unemployment rate and the full-time / part-time split the labour
force survey has been running roughly consistent with the NAB survey
over the past year.
Given the strong correlation between
employment growth and the participation rate, employment growth likely
needs to average a little less than ~12.5k a month to put upward
pressure on the unemployment rate. In our view, this data is consistent
with no change to the cash rate in May.”
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