Trade Ideas For EUR/USD, USD/CHF, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CAD - UBS
The following are UBS' latest short-term (mostly intraday) trading strategies for EUR/USD, USD/CHF, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, and USD/CAD.
EUR/USD: tested 1.0850 overnight and held around there for the third time this week and looks very well-supported ahead of the post-NFP low from Friday. At the same time, however, we expect sellers to be lined up ahead of 1.0950. The range play can therefore continue. The overall risk is to the downside, but in the short run we will keep playing the intraday moves and keep it tight. Flows were mixed yesterday with sellers in the morning and buying interest in the afternoon.
USD/CHF: was rangebound with a slight bid tone as EURUSD topped out above 1.09. The Swiss franc is mainly driven by risk, equities and oil prices for now. We expect today's session to be very similar market with no imporatnt US data releases and risk still looking slightly vulnerable. Watch 1.0020/1.0060 as main resistance and 0.9950/0.9880 as supports. Fade extremes.
AUD/USD: had a nice correction Monday morning but then headed lower along with the sell-off in commodities and equities. The pair was stuck in a 0.6974-0.7004 range in Asia. The price action remains very soft. We would continue to prefer selling into rallies with stops above 0.7100. It should be a matter of time before AUDUSD breaks through last year's low of 0.6900.
NZD/USD: has been trading within a tighter range. While the pair was capped at 0.6580 Monday morning, 0.6540 held on the downside. We would continue to prefer fading rallies between 0.6580 and 0.6630 with stops above 0.6725, eventually targeting a test of the September 2015 low of 0.6240.
USD/CAD: initially topped at 1.4185, the resistance from 2003, and slipped to 1.4065, but reversed sharply as crude prices fell. A poor BoC business outlook survey hurt CAD longs. USD/CAD: went up to 1.4245 as Brent futures extended losses over -6.6%. Watch intraday support at 1.4180-90 before 1.4320 and 1.4505. Oil will remain the main driver. While the market is likely waiting for $30, the risk of OPEC reaction is rising.
