Pound Sterling Live's Euro Forecast for Three, Six and Twelve Months
Pound Sterling Live have compiled their list of institutional projections for the euro covering 2016 to arrive at the most comprehensive forecast of its kind that is freely available to market-watchers.
The euro forecasts in question cover our two headline pairs - the euro against the dollar and the British pound.
The striking outcome of our compilation is that while the euro is forecast lower it will find 1.03 to be a major sticking point over the course of 2016.
The average euro to dollar forecast for March 2016 is set at 1.0315, this falls to 1.0308 in mid-year, a fall to 1.03 by September and a recovery to 1.0354 in December 2016.
The forecasts to watch include HSBC who are at the upper-bound with a call of 1.20 by the end of 2016. This is understandable if we consider they see the discussion of US interest rate rises in the year-ahead being decidedly bearish for the dollar.
The other call to watch is that made by Deutsche Bank who reckon the pair will be at 0.90 at the end of the year. The argument being made by the German bank is the flight of investor capital out of euro will continue unabated.
Euro to pound exchange rate forecasts meanwhile deliver one theme - a rising euro in 2016.
The average March forecast for EURGBP is at 0.6883, this rises to 0.6945 in June, 0.70 by September and 0.7058 by the end of the year.
Calls to watch are those made by HSBC, once again, who see 0.80 being hit at year-end.
Barclays and BNP Paribas meanwhile see the pair closing the year at 0.67.
The EUR/GBP recorded its lowest point of 0.6936 in July from where it was able to rally back towards a multi-week best at 0.7439.
At the time of writing the exchange rate conversion is at 0.7167.
RBS are not on our list of forecasters but we have just reported the views of Chief Economist Ross Walkerwho says he sees the GBP maintaining strengthagainst the majority of G10 currencies in 2015, however risks are biased to the downside.
Goldman Sachs Backtrack on Negative Euro Stance
While Goldman Sachs are not part of our forecast matrix, we have received research from the bank's analayst Robin Brooks who has announced his team are upping their predictions for the shared currency.
The ECB's December meeting has lead the team to realise their conviction that the ECB is wholeheartedly pursuing reflation policies was too aggressive. As such:
"We are scaling back our expectation for Euro downside as a result. We revise our forecast for EUR/$ to 1.07, 1.05 and 1.00 in 3, 6 and 12 months."
Furthermore, Goldman's forecasts for EUR/GBP and EUR/CHF have also been revised up.
