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Imre Speizer, Senior Markets Strategist at Westpac, suggests that the
NZD/USD broke above its 0.6430-0.6600 range last week, and now looks
destined for the 0.68-0.69 area during the weeks ahead.
Key Quotes
“The sharp fall in the USD post ECB was a major factor and there is the risk of more next week if the Fed’s guidance disappoints USD bulls. Closer to home, the RBNZ could also disappoint NZD bears by either not cutting, or by cutting and issuing guidance that further cuts are unlikely. The former would see NZD/USD soar, while the latter would push it moderately higher. But if they do cut (our view) and leave the door open for more eventually, NZD/USD should fall slightly on the day.
3 months ahead: After last week’s acceleration higher, our year-end forecast of 0.62 now looks unlikely. Indeed, should the US dollar extend last week’s plunge (a real risk if the Fed’s guidance next week is dovish), and the RBNZ is less dovish than the market expects, NZD/USD will probably be trading above 0.68. Looking ahead three months, though, we stick with our view that the Fed’s tightening cycle (hikes in Dec and Mar) will see the US dollar resume its multi-year uptrend. Combined with our view the RBNZ will need to contemplate a sub-2.5% OCR, we target 0.63 in march 2016.
1 year ahead: Our 1 year ahead forecast is 0.62, based partly on the OCR being cut to 2.0%.”
Key Quotes
“The sharp fall in the USD post ECB was a major factor and there is the risk of more next week if the Fed’s guidance disappoints USD bulls. Closer to home, the RBNZ could also disappoint NZD bears by either not cutting, or by cutting and issuing guidance that further cuts are unlikely. The former would see NZD/USD soar, while the latter would push it moderately higher. But if they do cut (our view) and leave the door open for more eventually, NZD/USD should fall slightly on the day.
3 months ahead: After last week’s acceleration higher, our year-end forecast of 0.62 now looks unlikely. Indeed, should the US dollar extend last week’s plunge (a real risk if the Fed’s guidance next week is dovish), and the RBNZ is less dovish than the market expects, NZD/USD will probably be trading above 0.68. Looking ahead three months, though, we stick with our view that the Fed’s tightening cycle (hikes in Dec and Mar) will see the US dollar resume its multi-year uptrend. Combined with our view the RBNZ will need to contemplate a sub-2.5% OCR, we target 0.63 in march 2016.
1 year ahead: Our 1 year ahead forecast is 0.62, based partly on the OCR being cut to 2.0%.”
