The previous forecast was fulfilled (strictly speaking over-fulfilled) by 110%.
First, a few words about the forecast for the previous week:
- The forecast for EUR/USD can be considered not simply fulfilled, but over-fulfilled. Let's recall that 73% of the experts insisted that the pair would first fall to the support of 1.1300, and then down to the 1.1120 support. What actually happened? Until mid -Thursday the pair barraged against the level of 1.1300 and then, following the interest rate announcement by the ECB, it fell to the aforementioned level of 1.1120. One would think that it would stop there, but with the help of the National Bank of China the pair broke through this support level on Friday and reached the landmark level of 1.1000, where it had not been since mid-August.
- With regards to the behaviour of the GBP/USD pair, a sideways trend within the 1.5420÷1.5500 range, lasting for most of the week, had been almost unanimously predicted (which is what ended up happening), after which the forecasts differed. Here, graphical analysis ended up being 100% correct - according to its readings, the pair had to go down to the 1.5350 support level, i.e. the area in which it finished the previous week;
- Regarding the USD/JPY pair 64% of experts and almost all technical analysis tools predicted the breach of the lower side of the triangle which the pair had been painting since the end of August, to be short-lived. And so it happened - by Friday the pair reached the said 120.80 resistance and then, propelled by its Chinese neighbour, went to the next peak - 121.45, thus transforming the triangle into a horizontal channel.
- As for the USD/CHF pair, both experts and technical
analysis unanimously predicted upward movement, differing only in their
predictions concerning the velocity of this movement. It ended up happening
very quickly. As one of the versions implied, the pair started rising on
Monday, breaking through the top of the channel and approaching the resistance
at 0.9600. Here one third of the experts were convinced that it would not stop
at that point and would instead rise by a further 100 points, and turned out
being correct: the pair rose by 100 point... and then by another 100,
eventually reaching the 0.9800 mark.
***
The forecast for the coming week:
Summarizing the views of several dozen analysts from leading banks and brokerage firms, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of the different methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:
- One should not even discuss the readings of indicators concerning the future of the EUR/USD, - they are all aimed sharply downwards. However, 50% of experts and graphical analysis suggest that the pair will move in the sideways corridor of 1.1000÷1.1100. They are supported by another 33% of analysts, who differ only in the fact that they drop the support line by 50 points to 1.0950. Only 17% of the experts insist on the pair’s return to the 1.1300 resistance;
- A similar pattern is observed for GBP/USD. Around 80% of the indicators vote for the fall of the pair. Half of the experts, who state that the fall will not be very strong - the main support will be at the1.5200 level, join them. However, the remaining 50% of experts and graphical analysis on H4 believe that the pair has reached the bottom and will now move in the sideways channel 1.5300 ÷ 1.5470.
- The indicators on USD/JPY also face just one direction - northwards. What is surprising is that 100% of experts agree with them, believing that the pair will be unable to fall below the 120.50 support and, after bouncing off it, it will be propelled towards 122.00.
- Up and only up! - This is the outlook for the USD/CHF pair. Both experts and graphic analysis on H1, H4 and D1, as well as the vast majority of indicators, share it. Support is identified in the 0.9740 ÷ 0.9765 area, with the Pivot Point being at 0.9800, and the closest target at 0.9900. Only 14% of the indicators on N1 and just 1 indicator at D1 timidly remind us that the pair may still descend and collapse by a further 100 points to the support of 0.9665.
Roman Butko, NordFX & Sergey Ershov
