Economists support Bank of England's view there are no dangers from overseas

Economists seem to support the Bank of England's view that the U.K. economy is resilient in the face of a global slowdown.

80% of respondents to Bloomberg’s monthly poll said the central bank is right in its estimation that the rout isn’t yet having a material effect. Officials Kristin Forbes and Ian McCafferty reiterated this opinion last week, with the latter saying there’s little evidence of a negative impact on Britain.

For investors, it will be essential to understand how this opinion will fit into the debate about when to finally raise interest rates from a record 0.5%. With inflation below zero, McCafferty is now the only official voting for a liftoff, though Forbes has said she favors tightening soon.

Philip Shaw, an economist at Investec said that it is just one of a number of factors. “We’re not witnessing anything directly at the moment, but given the interconnectedness of the global economy, there could be second round effects.”

BOE Governor Mark Carney expects the outlook for the key rate to get more intense around the turn of the year, though he hasn’t given any remarks on monetary policy since the MPC’s October 8 decision.

He is expected to give a speech in Oxford later in the day to coincide with the publication of a BOE report into EU membership and monetary stability.

Several analysts have scaled back their hopes for the first BOE rate hike to May 2016 from February, while investors aren’t totally pricing in a BOE rate increase until 2017.

Economists in the poll also expect the central bank to trim its growth and inflation estimates when it posts new forecasts in November. Almost 60% of those surveyed see a cut in the growth outlook, with 65% predicting an inflation downgrade.

There’s a ground for worries. U.K. GDP has expanded for 10 straight quarters and productivity is finally beginning to climb. However, emerging-market risks have risen and domestic surveys point to a slowdown in manufacturing and services in recent months. At the same time, inflation is well below the BOE’s 2 percent goal and policy-makers expect it to stay about 1 percent into 2016.