Four key points you should look at in today's Fed minutes

Market players now anticipate the release of the minutes from the Fed's September meeting due later in the day for hints on if policy-makers could raise short-term interest rates before the end of the year and on why they didn't do it last month.

At the September meeting, the FOMC voted to leave its benchmark Federal Funds Rate at its current level between zero and 0.25%, marking the 55th consecutive meeting it decided to stand pat on the policy of a near-zero level.

One member of the FOMC Richmond Fed president Jeffrey Lacker voted for a rise of 0.25%, and four others felt that the Fed should wait until 2016. In June, by comparison, only two FOMC members were in favor of postponing a rate hike until next year.

Following the meeting, Fed chair Janet Yellen said it was likely the FOMC could increase rates by the end of the year barring unforeseen events over the next several weeks. Last week, though, a dismal U.S. jobs report for September could have planted seeds of doubt among FOMC members whether a rate hike this year should be appropriate.

On Tuesday, San Francisco Fed president John Williams repeated that he still believes the FOMC will raise rates in 2015. Even so, Williams expects the pace of rate hikes to be the "most gradual tightening cycle in the history of the Fed."

So what should we pay attention to today? Where does the shoe pinch?

Labor market

Several months ago Fed officials expected a strong pace of job creation to keep through the end of the year. “Many members thought that labor market underutilization would be largely eliminated in the near term if economic activity evolved as they expected,” the Fed said in July.

Things change quickly. The number of new jobs created in the U.S. slid from a healthy 223,000 in July to mediocre 136,000 in August and 142,000 in September. A mounting number of economists now consider that the pullback in hiring means the central bank will wait until 2016 to increase rates.

“Although several members continue to signal rate hikes before year end, weaker employment and the deterioration in the trade deficit, in our view, make it likely that the Fed will desire more time to assess spillover” effects, economists at Barclays said in a report to clients.

Higher dollar

The Fed was aware of the damaging effect upon the economy the strong dollar produces, but officials thought the worst was over. Not so. American manufacturers have been battered by a strong greenback — it makes U.S. goods more expensive overseas — and exports have tanked.

The less reliable health of manufacturing and drop in exports have raise anxiety among U.S. executives, possibly adding to the slowdown in hiring. They are also pressuring the country’s growth.

GDP

Not too long ago central bankers were sure the U.S. economy was gaining momentum, especially after a strong rebound in the spring. In the second quarter, gross domestic product expanded at a 3.9% annual clip.

“GDP was again expected to increase faster in the second half of this year than in the first half and to expand more rapidly in 2016 and 2017,” the Fed said in July.

Not so fast. Declining exports and slower business investment point to softer third-quarter GDP. While most economists predict the U.S. economy will expand by 2.1% rate, GDPNow, a respected forecasting tool at the Atlanta Fed, is more pessimistic, expecting a 1.1% growth.

China

A global stock-market selloff was triggered by an economic downturn in China, and just a few months earlier, events in China were barely on the central bank’s radar.

Some Fed’s policy-makers suggested after the September meeting that the risk caused by China was already paling. If concerns about China recede and stock markets recover, they’ve suggested, then a rate increase is still likely before the end of the year.