As usual, let us start with a few words regarding last week’s forecast. And so:
- when making the forecast for the EUR/USD pair, we wrote that the absolute majority of experts and technical indicators (61%) predicted further growth to the height of 1.1500. The pair did indeed go upwards, quickly reached the very strong level of resistance in the zone of 1.1280÷1.1300, and then, repeating the scenario of the first week of June, rolled back, finishing the five days at the 1.1260 mark;
- regarding the future of the GBP/USD pair, last week the battle between the analysts and indicators did not subside: the former – in their majority (77%) were for the growth of the pair, the latter – for its fall. Looking at the graph, you can see just how convincing the victory of the experts turned out to be – overcoming a growth at angle of 45 degrees, the pair reached the symbolic mark of 1.5550 by Friday;
- as for USD/JPY, this pair, apparently, decided that it was gaining height too fast, and instead of the expected continuation of growth, made a swift nosedive downwards, transforming the level of support 123.80 into a level of resistance;
- it was expected that the USD/CHF pair would fall to the level of 0.9340 in the beginning of the week, followed by a rebound upwards. The pair did indeed go downwards, but, dashingly breaking through the level of 0.9340, changed it from support to a Pivot Point, with a certain degree of prevalence of “bearish” tendencies.
***
Now regarding the forecast for the coming week. Generalising the opinions of 35 analysts from world leading banks and broker companies, as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be said:
- when making predictions for the EUR/USD pair, the absolute majority of experts (71%) talk about its possible fall to the level of 1.1050. This forecast is based on the assumption of the monthly sideways trend of the pair in the corridor 1.1050÷1.1350. As for the indicators on H4 and D1, they also confirm the idea of a sideways trend, defining Pivot Points on the line of 1.1260, but also do not exclude the growth of the pair at the start of the week;
- yet regarding the future of the GBP/USD pair the analysts are at a total loss (↑ - 29%, → - 29%, ↓ - 42%). The indicators however are clearly (83%) for the growth of the pair to the level of 1.5680. Support is in the zone of 1.5440 and, if you consider graphical analysis, the pair is bound to first fall to this level;
- for the USD/JPY pair there is no unanimity among experts either, and if we sum up their forecasts, we get a corridor of 122.45÷125.00 with Pivot Points at the level of 123.50. On the D1 timeframe, the indicators agree 100% with the analysts. A for the indications on H4, they show a possible fall of the pair to the bottom boundary of the corridor in the beginning of the week;
- for the USD/CHF pair 67% of experts predict a growth at least to the main level of resistance of the previous week in the zone of 0.9400. In the case that the pair is successful in breaking through this defence line, its next target will become the height of 0.9500. However indicators on H1, H4 and D1 and even W1 persistently assert the opposite, insisting on a clear advantage of the “bears”. Acting usually as the “third power”, graphical analysis turned out, this time, to be on the side of the human mind – first growth of the pair to 0.9400, and then its return to support at the level of 0.9300 or 0.9250.
Roman Butko, NordFX & Sergey Ershov
