As usual, let us start with a few words regarding last week’s forecast. And so:
- for the EUR/USD pair the majority of experts (↑ - 69%, → - 12%, ↓ - 19%) predicted a stable growth. Technical indicators on the H4 timeframe also agreed with them. However, on the contrary, systems of graphical analysis drew a rebound downwards to the level of resistance of 1.1000. The rebound did indeed happen, though it was not as strong as expected – the pair rolled down by 100.0 points and then, confirming the wisdom of the experts, strived upwards again, reaching the strong resistance level in the zone of 1.1280÷1.1300;
- the forecast for the GBP/USD pair was fulfilled by 100%. We predicted that despite the obvious gravitation towards the 1.5000 mark, the pair would spend all of the previous week in a sideways trend, which is what happened – the pair finished at the same place where it had been at the start of the week – in the zone of 1.5270;
- the accuracy for the USD/JPY pair was also 100%. It was expected that when storming the height of 126.00, the pair would organise attack after attack, pushing off support in the zone of 123.60. There were three such attacks the previous week, and, as a result, only on Friday did the pair break through the defence line of the “Japanese” at the height of 124.60 and in a powerful jerk almost reached the its coveted goal;
- nothing original was predicted for the USD/CHF pair – an inverse correlation with EUR/USD and two possible scenarios: the first being a rebound from 0.9400 upwards, the alternative being a fall to 0.9280. The pair managed to execute both scenarios, after which it returned to the start line – the 0.9400 mark.
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Now regarding the forecast for the coming week. Generalizing the opinions of 35 analysts from world leading banks and broker companies, as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be said:
- for the EUR/USD pair in the coming week an absolute majority of experts and indicators (61%) predict a completion of Friday’s correction and further growth to the height of 1.1500. It should be noted, however, that the very same experts agree that in July-August the pair ought to move back down to at least the zone of 1.0400÷1.0500. According to graphical analysis, on Monday the pair should grow to the level of 1.1190, and then dart downwards to 1.1000;
- regarding the future of the GBP/USD pair, the fight between the analysts and the indicators continues: the former – in their majority (77%) are for the pair’s growth, the latter (100%) are for its fall. Considering that last week the result of this fight was a sideways trend, it can be assumed that this week the pair will fluctuate around the axis of 1.5270, remaining in the corridor of 1.5150÷1.5450. Slightly increasing the timeframe, the pair can be expected to return to the zone of 1.5000
- last Friday the USD/JPY pair had already achieved the level of June 2007, and the next record height will be 135.00, where the height was found in the winter of 2002. However for this purpose the pair must first secure itself in the vicinity of 126.00. Technical indicators offer two possible choices as Pivot Points – 124.30 and 125.40. It seems more probable that 124.30 will become a support level for USD/JPY, leaning on which the “bulls” will push the pair upwards into the zone of 126.70÷127.40;
- for the USD/CHF pair, all 70% of experts, 61% of H4 indicators and systems of graphical analysis predict growth to at least 0.9530. The level of 0.9340 should become the main support level, until which the pair may fall in the start of the week in order to then shoot upwards.
Roman Butko, NordFX & Sergey Ershov
