TODAY PRESIDENT WILL BROADCAST Chicago Fed Charles EVANS.ILI NEWS OF THE DAY!

20 May 2015, 09:58
Alexey Mashkovtsev
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• Greek deal at the end of May? German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Hollande said yesterday that negotiations with Greece should be accelerated to produce an agreement by the end of May, due to the financial needs of the country. EU President Juncker said he expects a deal in late May or early June. Nevertheless, the threat came from another source: as the 100,311 Christian Democrats - Merkel's party members in the lower house of the German (Bundestag), apparently opposed to further aid to Greece. The Bundestag will have to approve any significant changes in the conditions of the program of aid to Greece. The deal for Greece will remove the greatest risk factor for the euro and the euro will be a positive factor. Failure of one of the parties can be disastrous.

• Japan's GDP grew 2.4% in the 1st quarter, an increase from the level of 1.5% in the 4th quarter, beating expectations - estimate of 1.6%. It was not simply because of deflation; nominal growth also grew rapidly. Capital investment increased for the first time in four quarters, stocks also rose, showing that companies are becoming more optimistic. On the other hand, it is possible that the accumulation of inventory can be reversed in the coming quarters and growth will slow as a result. Nevertheless, the stock markets of Tokyo opened higher and the pair USD / JPY rose along with them as a result of showing the usual positive correlation.

• Today's events: the main event today will be the FOMC meeting minutes of April. Protocols are likely to show that members of the FOMC continues to focus on voting for a rate hike this year, as already mentioned several times the Fed speakers in recent years. The focus will be on how Fed officials will interpret the latest data of weak growth, influence their decisions about when it is raising rates. What part of slow economic growth in the 1st quarter are attributed to poor weather conditions and a strike at the port? Investors will also look for any mention of how the strength of the dollar affect the US economy. Of course, inflation data will also be closely analyzed. If reports show optimism about the future, the dollar is likely to get stronger against major currencies.

• In addition to minutes and FOMC, the Bank of England will release its May meeting minute. We expect that the minute the tone will include recent report on inflation and the MPC members confirmed the view that "the next move is likely to be bet on the increase." We'll be watching, will these two members, who see the risk of a finely balanced, and whether one of them, who had previously voted for a rate hike, and now will begin to insist on tightening soon. Another key point to which we must pay attention to any discussion of low inflation, wages. It seems there are two camps MPC: those who think that low inflation means lower wages, and those who think that the growing demands on wages are likely to increase inflation.

• With regard to the performance during the European session will Norway's GDP in the 1st quarter, it is expected to grow at a slower pace compared with the previous quarter. This can add additional pressure on Norges Bank to cut rates at the June meeting. This may be negative for the crown.

• In Sweden, the official unemployment rate will be released in April, it is expected to increase slightly. This can be somewhat weakened SEK.

• Today will broadcast the Chicago Fed President Charles Evans.
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