EUR remains in consolidation despite the sudden Friday volatility on Greek financial conditions agreement. H4 and Daily indicators are flat and give no information for the future, while Weekly ones seem to point to the upside. Today Germany's IFO data will be released and it is expected to be better than previous so this will be in favor of the upside movement. It is good to know that at 1.1660 we have a quite strong resistance and breaking above will be very hard. So for now i think that any upside will be just a correction higher which will be followed by another downside wave. EUR will remain in consolidation today as the market is waiting for the mrs.Yellen and mr.Draghi speeches tomorrow. On Thursday Germany's unemployment data will be released together with Eurozone economic confidence and US durable goods orders + jobless claims report which will cause another high volatility trade and it is quite possible the upside of the eur to continue the whole week. Friday we may have a limited profit taking, and it will be better to close all opened positions as it will be the last trade day of this month.
GOLD continues to slide slowly. On bigger timeframes it seems the metal is in a consolidation, but on smaller ones we can see it continuously looses price. The process seems to continue as indicators on time frames greater that H1 are bearish. If the price drops below 1200 sell GOLD. Upside recovery is possible on H4 close above 1218.
NZD moves in a tiny range close to the resistance 0.7530. This level continues to prevent the further upside, but once above the things will start to look better for the bulls. Target will be set at 0.7600 and then 0.7690. First support comes at 0.7490 followed by 0.7455 and 0.7430. Below the last bulls will loose the battle.
AUD is using the 0.7800-0.7810 support area to start an upside recovery, but there are not so positive fundamental data to influence such movement. So the pair remains in a consolidation to bullish state above 0.7820. First resistance comes at 0.7850, then 0.7890. First support is 0.7780 followed by 0.7750, below that AUD will continue to loose price further.
JPY quickly started to loose price after BoJ minutes release today, but if we take a look at H4 and Daily we shall see that the pair seems to stay still in the consolidation state, despite the release. Plenty of economic data for Japan will be released on Friday, and i expect some huge volatility too. H4 close today below 118.80 is going to destabilize bulls, however breaking of 119.35 will encourege them further to try their luck at 120.00 and above.
GBP stays at the support 1.5375 which is the bulls' last hope. Breaking below will be the signal for the bears to come out and to rule the pair. On Daily frame the price is inside a negative cloud but is quite possible to be rejected and to return again below it. Sell GBP below 1.5260. Above 1.5410 you may try some small longs, but place SL.
RUB has made a quick test of 60.00 this morning, and now the price is trying to start an upside wave. For this we need at least one H4 bar closed above 63.20 and of course two bars is better to confirm the upside movement has started. First attempt was not successful. We have a resistance at 63.80, but if we are able to close any day of this week above 64.00 this will support the bulls further to attack 66.00 and 68.00 levels. Breaking below 60.00 will destroy the bullish outlook, but i think there will be some more consolidation above 60.00.
For today:
LONG EUR above 1.1375 SL1.1360 TP 1.1410-1.1440-1.1480-1.1520-1.1565
SHORT EUR below 1.1350 SL 1.1365 TP 1.1315-1.1290-1.1270-1.1220
SHORT GOLD below 1199 SL 1202 TP 1192-1180-1168-1156
LONG GOLD above 1218 SL 1215 TP 1226-1232-1242-1251
