Imre Shpaytser - senior strategist at Bank Westpac - predicts that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will launch its cycle of monetary tightening in August next year. In this Shpaytser expects that the winter market will start to consider future rate hikes priced in Australian dollars.
Suppose that the US Federal Reserve to implement the first rate hike in the summer of 2015 (as one can judge by the comments of members of the FOMC, it is for such a scenario leaning "centrist" most managers FRS). In this case, the US central bank, and if surpass the RBA, the marginally. A month or two, no more.
Forecast Shpaytsera quite aggressive. After RBA leadership repeatedly states that in the foreseeable future, the Bank will maintain its policy of stable interest rates and the exchange rate of the national currency in the future will be much lower. Personally, I'm still inclined to believe that the Australian tightening cycle will be launched at the end of next year.
The main question that arises in this situation is that possible in principle to increase the Australian dollar in 2015? In my opinion, yes.
Firstly, in August 2015 the RBA may come to the conclusion that to keep rates unchanged no longer appropriate. Push the central bank to this conclusion may dynamics in housing prices - its Central Bank closely monitors. A rate hike could give impetus to the growth of "Australian".
Second, the statements of the RBA Glenn Stevens and his colleagues about the inevitability of a significant reduction in the Aussie - it is not a forecast for next year, and their views on the long-term prospects of the national currency. Actually, that's how it sounds forecast Stevens: Australian Dollar necessarily fall, but when this happens is unknown. So it is possible the pair AUD / USD in 2015 does not contradict this prediction.
But whether or not "laid" on such a scenario? I would not. Imre Shpaytsera opinion, with all due respect to this analyst, in my opinion, is not enough to bet on the strengthening of the Australian dollar. Against the background of the Fed raising rates, a stronger US dollar and falling prices for raw materials, including iron ore, it will be difficult to grow Aussie. So to any positive outlook should be treated with caution.
In my opinion, a reasonable tactic will closely monitor the situation in the housing market in Australia, as well as official representatives of the RBA comments on this topic. Analysis of this information will allow more balanced assessment of the chances of the Australian dollar to rise in 2015.
To the author Sergey Glushkov
