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Friday, June 15th
The EUR/USD pair is extending its massive retreat, refreshing its 2-week lows on the level of 1.1543, as market speculations regarding yesterday’s ECB meeting are still weighting the common currency. Yesterday the pair witnessed a free fall, having lost almost 300 pips, triggered by ECB’s dovish QE program tapering and Mr. Draghi’s comments regarding next ECB rate hike. According to the results of the ECB meeting, the regulator intends to begin QE program tapering, but starting only in October. Moreover, during the subsequent press conference ECB President M. Draghi said that he sees next interest rate hike no sooner than summer 2019. The outcome of the ECB meeting negatively affected the common currency, sending it to its recent lows. Moreover, upbeat US retails sales data increased buying interest around the greenback, thus additionally accelerating pair’s drop. Now traders’ attention remains focused on the Eurozone inflation data, which is the last important release for this week, so investors will continue to digest recent events, thus determining pair’s further direction.
The USD/JPY pair accelerated its bullish move in Asia, having refreshed its 3-week highs on the level of 110.89. Earlier today, the pair received notable bullish impetus on the back of, as usually, dovish outcome of the BoJ meeting. As it was widely expected, the regulator didn’t announce any adjustments to its monetary policy or interest rate, however, cutting assessment on inflation. This outcome of the meeting once again highlighted the divergence between the Fed and BoJ, bringing it to the fore. Moreover, bullish dynamics of the US dollar is another driving factor for the pair, which is pushing it to in the north direction. As the BoJ meeting was the last important market mover of this busy week, investors will continue to digest recent events, therefore forming further pair’s trajectory.
The GBP/USD pair continues to move in the south direction after yesterday’s sharp drawdown, having refreshed its 2-week lows on the level of 1.3229. Today, significantly improved demand for the US dollar remains one of the key driving factors across the market, triggered by yesterday’s sharp retreat of the EUR/USD pair on the back of dovish outcome of the ECB meeting and positive US retail sales figures. In addition, it seems that markets have already digested recent vote on Brexit bill, where the House of Commons supported the UK government in the matter of further negotiations on Brexit, thus limiting any chances of the pound to recover against its US counterpart. Today both economic calendars remain relatively empty, offering only secondary data reports, so broad market sentiment will remain as a key determinant for the pair during this trading session.
The AUD/USD pair extends its downside trend, triggered by yesterday’s weak Australia employment data and Chinese industrial production, reaching its monthly lows on the level of 0.7453. Moreover, increased divergence between the Fed and RBA is another negative driver for the pair, as the Fed indicated faster rate hike path, while the RBA sees no need to raise the interest rate in the near future, which means that the Australian regulator will continue to adhere to its accommodative monetary policy. And finally, improved buying interest around the US dollar is also weighing the pair at the last working day of the week. Looking ahead, nothing much is left in the economic calendar, so speculations regarding recent events will remain as a key driver for the pair this Friday.
Major events of the day:
EU CPI – 12.00 (GMT +3)
Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1371 R. 1.1947
USDJPY S. 109.63 R. 111.19
GBPUSD S. 1.3133 R. 1.3509
USDCHF S. 0.9775 R. 1.0071
AUDUSD S. 0.7403 R. 0.7621
NZDUSD S. 0.6923 R. 0.7071
USDCAD S. 1.2888 R. 1.3220
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