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Tuesday, May 22nd
The EUR/USD pair follows broad market trend, having stalled its downside trend, however, remaining within striking distance of its half-year lows, marked on the level of 1.1717 on Monday. Today slight correction of the US dollar after its bullish rally against major competitors remains the main theme across the market, allowing major currencies to recover some ground. However, further growth of the pair looks limited, as the formation of a populist coalition in Italy increases concerns, especially in regards to the fiscal policy of the new government. Looking ahead, today nothing much is scheduled in both economic calendars, so investors will remain in anticipation of next important events - the FOMC minutes due for tomorrow and the ECB minutes, which will be released on Thursday.
The GBP/USD pair consolidates its positions after another retreat, oscillating within 1.3415-35 trading range. The pair remains under pressure of several bearish factors without any chances for recovery. Ongoing Brexit talks, which are not showing any progress, remain one of the key factors, limiting pair’s recovery. UK Prime Minister T. May is having a difficult time making a decision on Brexit, as on the one hand she is being pressured by EU leaders in Brussels, and on the other, by members of her own party, who adhere to “hard Brexit” scenario. In addition, broad demand for the US dollar also negatively affects the pair, as investors continue to price in a Fed rate hike next month. Now all markets’ attention shifts towards UK inflation hearings, which will be able to provide investors with fresh trading opportunities during European trades, while any headlines regarding Brexit will also have significant impact on the pair.
The USD/JPY pair stepped lower from its 4-month highs, marked on the level of 111.39 on Monday, having returned towards the level of 111.00. Recent upside trend of the pair is mostly attributed to the ongoing rally of the US dollar against its major rivals, triggered by expectations that the Fed will increase its interest rate by 25 bps next month. In addition, increased demand for risky assets is another bearish factor for the safe-haven yen. Recall, on Sunday Treasury Secretary S. Mnuchin said that the US will delay tariffs on Chinese imports, while sides are discussing details of a trade deal, which sparked notable spike of risk-on sentiments. However, it seems that US bulls took a breather on Monday, allowing the pair to retreat from its recent highs. Today the pair will continue to follow broad market sentiment, as the US economic calendar won’t offer anything interesting to investors on Tuesday.
The USD/CAD pair remains pressured despite broad demand for the greenback, having refreshed its intraday lows on level of 1.2764. It seems that optimist around negotiations on NAFTA continues to support the Canadian dollar. According to the latest news headlines, sides are interested in reaching a good deal on NAFTA. Moreover, ongoing growth of oil prices, which are currently trading in the region of its multi-year highs, also provides some support to the commodity-linked loonie. In the day ahead, the pair will continue to trace widespread market trend amid lack of any important releases, scheduled in the economic calendar for Tuesday.
Major events of the day:
UK Inflation Report Hearings – 12.00 (GMT +3)
Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1688 R. 1.1848
USDJPY S. 110.42 R. 111.72
GBPUSD S. 1.3342 R. 1.3528
USDCHF S. 0.9948 R. 1.0014
AUDUSD S. 0.7473 R. 0.7643
NZDUSD S. 0.6858 R. 0.6994
USDCAD S. 1.2698 R. 1.2942
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