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Monday, March 5th
The EUR/USD pair trades with a negative bias at the start of this week, as parliamentary election in Italy remains the key driving factor for the pair. According to the latest exit polls, the populist party “Five Star Movement” and right-centrist occupies leading positions in the parliamentary race. However, parties still short of an absolute majority, which means that Italy is heading a hung parliament, thus bringing some uncertainty to the Italy’s political field. Moreover, recovery of the US dollar after its brief drawdown, provoked by US President’s talks that the US will impose steep tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, also drives the pair to the negative territory on Monday. In the day ahead, both sides will offer market PMI reports from service sector, however, it is expected that the US dollar price actions will remain the key determinant for the pair during this trading session.
The GBP/USD pair remains negative this Monday, failing to extend its recovery above the level of 1.3800. On Friday the pair mostly ignored the long-awaited speech of UK PM T.May, as speaker didn’t surprise markets with anything new, however, having reiterated that no deal for Britain is better than a bad deal. The lack of details during the speech of Mrs.May leaves the uncertainty around Brexit as the key driver for the pound, which is pushing the pair to the negative territory lately. Adding to this, still persisting risk-off sentiment plays the role of another negative factor for the higher-yielding pound, thus additionally weighing the pair this Monday. Today both economies will offer us service PMI reports, which will bring investors fresh trading opportunities during this trading session.
The AUD/USD pair remains offered at the start of this week on the back of two factors, which are holding the pair under pressure. First, seems that US bulls have finally recovered from recent US President D.Trump’s comments on import tariffs and regained control of the market, sending the US dollar higher. Moreover, upcoming RBA meeting, which is scheduled for the next Asian session, is another bearish factor for the pair, as investors are expecting that the regulator won’t provide markets with any hawkish message, so divergence between the RBA and Fed will be back into play. Besides the Australian Bank’s meeting, markets will also pay attention to US data releases, while greenback price action will keep navigating the pair this Monday.
The USD/JPY pair ignores broad market trend, remaining within striking distance of its 16-month lows, marked at 105.25 during previous trading session. It seems that broad risk aversion, caused by Trump's comments on import tariffs, supports the safe-haven yen at the start of this week. Moreover, expected that we will continue to witness broad cautiousness this week, as markets remain in anticipation of busy Friday, where the US will release important data from the labor market and the BoJ will hold the meeting on the monetary policy. On the other hand, recovery of the US dollar after recent brief drawdown could limit pair’s downside trend. On the data front, today the US will offer investors only with the ISM service PMI report, so risk-off sentiment and the US dollar price dynamics will continue to navigate the pair during this trading session.
Major events of the day:
UK Services PMI – 11.30 (GMT +2)
US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI – 12.00 (GMT +2)
Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.2221 R. 1.2391
USDJPY S. 104.69 R. 106.84
GBPUSD S. 1.3726 R. 1.3850
USDCHF S. 0.9292 R. 0.9466
AUDUSD S. 0.7720 R. 0.7795
NZDUSD S. 0.7184 R. 0.7307
USDCAD S. 1.2764 R. 1.2980
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