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Tuesday, February 27th
The EUR/USD pair remains positive this Tuesday, following yesterday’s speech of the ECB President M.Draghi at the European Parliament. As usual, Mr.Draghi took a cautious stance without providing any new comments on massive quantitative easing program, as well as remaining measured in the comments about inflation growth. However, the overall assessment of the ECB President of the Eurozone economic growth was positive, while stressing that the euro area economy is expanding robustly and growth is stronger than previously expected. Looking ahead, today the new Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony to the House Committee will take center stage and will be able to set up pair’s further short-term trajectory.
The GBP/USD pair is consolidating its yesterday’s retreat within the range of 1.3950-70, which was sparked by renewed Brexit drama. The pound remains under heavy bearish pressure lately on the back of ongoing fears of hard Brexit with lack of compromise between the UK and Europe on several issues. Yesterday the pair eased part of its previous gains, as Labor party changed its mind and joined the side of UK officials, who denies softer approach, offered by UK PM T.May, saying that it questions UK sovereignty. It is expected that Friday will become a volatile day for the UK currency, as markets expect Mrs.May to deliver her Brexit plan, where she will outline key themes to be discussed during the new cycle of negotiation, which starts this March. Meanwhile, today all traders’ attention will remain focused to the first Jerome Powell's congressional testimony for fresh insight on further Fed monetary policy, which can significantly affect the US dollar.
The USD/JPY was trading with a bearish bias during the Asian trading session on the back of broad cautiousness, which was limiting pair’s upside trend. Now markets are remaining in anticipation of the testimony by the new Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who is expected to deliver fresh hints regarding further Fed’s direction, which in turn makes investors to reconsider their opened positions. Moreover, subdued dynamics of the US dollar on the back of all the same testimony of Mr.Powell also weights the pair this Tuesday. On the other hand, dovish stance of the BoJ Governor H.Kuroda, caused by weak inflation growth pace, negatively affects positions of the yen. Moreover, this stance of the head of the Japanese regulator can provoke new speculation across the market regarding the divergence between monetary policies of the Fed and BoJ. Besides the speech of Mr.Powell, today investors will also pay attention to macrostatistics, offered by the US, but expected that it won’t have significant impact on the pair.
The NZD/USD pair extends its downside trend, remaining within striking distance of its weekly lows, marked on the level of 0.7270, despite subdued dynamics of the US dollar. Recent retreat of the pair could be explained by decreased demand for risky assets ahead of all-important testimony of the new Fed Chair Jerome Powell, which could bring fresh insight on further Fed’s actions regarding monetary policy. Adding to this, disappointing trade data of NZ also added some negative impetus to the NZD, thus accelerating its retreat against US competitor this Tuesday. As already mentioned, today all eyes will remain glued to the speech of the new Fed Chair J.Powell to the Congress, while US data scheduled for today will also be able to bring some trading opportunities to investors during the NA session.
Major events of the day:
US Core Durable Goods Orders – 15.30 (GMT +2)
Fed Chair J.Powell’s Testimony – 15.30 (GMT +2)
US CB Consumer Confidence – 17.00 (GMT +2)
Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.2238 R. 1.2394
USDJPY S. 106.03 R. 107.63
GBPUSD S. 1.3845 R. 1.4131
USDCHF S. 0.9299 R. 0.9431
AUDUSD S. 0.7789 R. 0.7925
NZDUSD S. 0.7239 R. 0.7377
USDCAD S. 1.2573 R. 1.2767
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