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Tuesday, September 5th
The EUR/USD pair lost its upside momentum by the European opening and eased its yesterday’s gains on the back of attempts of the US dollar to recover its positions after disappointing data from the US labor market. Seems that US bulls recovered some ground on Tuesday, sending the major currency pair to the region of 1.1870. On the other hand, euro’s funding currency status continues to support the pair, as escalating tension around N.Korea is still navigating the market that in turn is limiting pair’s retreat. However, expected that the pair won’t perform any sharp moves in the day ahead, as investors remain in anticipation of the key risky event of this week – ECB meeting minutes, which will be released this Thursday. Today only European secondary tier reports and several Fedspeaks are scheduled in economic data calendars, so USD price dynamics and broad risk aversion will remain as key determinants for the pair throughout this trading session.
The AUD/USD pair failed to extend its overnight upside rally and retreated for about 30 pips, following neutral RBA policy decision. As it was widely expected, the RBA maintained status quo regarding cash rate, leaving it at its current level of 1.5%. However, in its accompanying statement the Bank reiterated its concerns regarding higher Aussie’s exchange level, saying that it could slow down further economic and inflation growth paces, which in turn weighed the Australian currency across the board. On the other hand, positive data from Chinese service sector and better-than-expected Australian Current Account report have limited pair’s retreat, allowing it to keep its positions in the positive territory. Adding to this, still low interest to higher-yielding assets, backed by geopolitical tensions around N.Korea, adds some bearish pressure on the pair in the first half of this week. Looking ahead, today we will have another quiet data session, as the US economic calendar will continue to keep silence for the second day in a row, leaving the pair at the mercy of broad market trend on Tuesday.
The yen is the top gainer of this Asian session, benefiting from escalating geopolitical tensions around the Korean Peninsula, which allowed the USD/JPY pair to keep its positions in the 109.20-40 region. The pair remains mainly weighed by renewed worries regarding growing conflict around N.Korea, as the latest news headlines indicate that Pyongyang could launch another ICBM-grade rocket before this Saturday. Also it became known today, that China is ready to tighten sanctions against North Korea. Moreover, continuing offered tone around the US dollar, triggered by weak data from the US labor market, also collaborated with pair’s retreat during the Asian trading session. Today nothing worthy is scheduled in the US data calendar, so broad risk aversion will remain as a key determinant for the pair during this trading session.
The GBP/USD pair was consolidating its yesterday’s retreat, remaining within 20 pips narrow range near the level of 1.2930 during the Asian trading session, as ongoing risk-off trend continues to dominate across the market. The pound continues suffering from increasing cautious stance of the market, underpinned by escalating conflict around N.Korea, which negatively affects the pair. Moreover, lower-than-expected UK construction PMI print, which was released on Monday, also added some negative pressure to the pair. On the other side, broad sell off of the greenback, triggered by recent awful US jobs report, limited GBP/USD retreat, having kept its positions in tight range in Asia. Now immediate focus shifts toward the UK Services PMI report, which will be able to bring some fresh trading opportunities during European trades, while the US will deliver only secondary tier reports, so the US dollar price dynamics and broad risk-off trend will remain as key navigators for the pair in the day ahead.
The main events of the day:
UK Services PMI – 11.30 (GMT +3)
Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1765 R. 1.2027
USDJPY S. 109.18 R. 111.00
GBPUSD S. 1.2859 R. 1.3041
USDCHF S. 0.9507 R. 0.9721
AUDUSD S. 0.7887 R. 0.8033
NZDUSD S. 0.7107 R. 0.7229
USDCAD S. 1.2256 R. 1.2560
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