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Wednesday, August 30th
The EUR/USD pair keeps its offered tone, having lost more than a cent since its multiyear tops, marked yesterday in the region of 1.2070. By the moment of writing, the pair was trading around the mid-point of 1.19 level, extending its retreat from yesterday peaks. Pair’s sharp reversal can be mainly attributed to broad profit taking actions after its strong bullish rally, triggered by recent events from the Korean Peninsula and widespread sell-off of the US currency. Adding to this seems that fears of further escalation of situation on the Korean Peninsula are fading away, which in turn also weighs the main currency pair on Wednesday. Later today, the US dollar price dynamics and broad risk trend will continue to navigate the pair throughout this trading session, while bloc of fundamentals from the US economy will be able to bring fresh impetus to the major later during the NA session.
The Aussie remains the biggest gainer of the Asian session, allowing the pair AUD/USD pair to refresh its monthly tops at 0.7996 spot. The pair regained its bid tone after Australian data, released during the Asia, showed a big improvement in the construction activity and less-than-expected drop in building approvals. Adding to this, a mild recovery in risk, backed by easing tensions around North Korea, is also supporting higher-yielding assets, such as the Aussie. On the other hand, continuing recovery of the US dollar after its yesterday’s sharp downside rally will limit pair’s further gains. Now all investors’ attention shifts towards the bloc of the US data, featuring ADP Nonfarm Employment Change numbers and preliminary GDP report, while any sharp moves of the USD against its main competitors will also be able to bring some volatility to the pair during this trading session.
The USD/JPY pair continues to keep its bid tone on Wednesday, extending its recovery from 4-month lows, posted at 108.26 on the back of a huge wave of risk-off sentiments. Yesterday the pair came under strong selling pressure on the back of recent news that N.Korean missiles entered Japan’s air space, which triggered strong risk aversions. However, the pair managed to bounce off its recent lows and break through its psychological resistance, located at 110.00 level, as traders do not see a further escalation of tensions in the Korean Peninsula that brings risk sentiments back to normal. Adding to this, ongoing recovery of the US dollar across the board after its yesterday’s retreat also benefits the pair on Wednesday. On the data front, today investors will await for fresh fundamentals from the US economy, which will be able to set up next near-term trend for the pair, while USD price dynamics and broad risk trend will remain as key determinants across the market throughout this Wednesday.
The NZD/USD pair extends retreat from its weekly highs, marked yesterday at 0.7298 spot, on the back speech of RBNZ Governor G.Wheeler. The head of the CB once again reiterated that the higher exchange rate of the NZ dollar remains uncomfortable for the RBNZ and negatively influences the inflation growth pace. These comments of Mr. Wheeler were perceived by the market as dovish that in turn negatively affected the pair. Moreover, recovery of the greenback also adds some pressure to the pair at the equator of this week. On the other hand, escalated fears over North Korea have started to cool off, offering some respite to risky assets. Looking ahead, today we will have pretty eventful session, as the US economic calendar contains such data, as ADP jobs change report, preliminary GDP numbers and oil inventories by EIA, which will be able to bring fresh trading opportunities during NY trades.
The main events of the day:
US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change – 15.15 (GMT +3)
Prelim. US GDP – 15.30 (GMT +3)
US Crude Oil Inventories – 17.30 (GMT +3)
Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1871 R. 1.2121
USDJPY S. 107.65 R. 110.95
GBPUSD S. 1.2873 R. 1.3001
USDCHF S. 0.9380 R. 0.9646
AUDUSD S. 0.7869 R. 0.8025
NZDUSD S. 0.7177 R. 0.7337
USDCAD S. 1.2390 R. 1.2610
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