EUR/USD: revision of the ECB policy is not required at this stage_06/04/2017

Current dynamics

ECB President Mario Draghi said today that "the recovery of the Eurozone economy has intensified, it has become more homogeneous", however, "it is too early to declare success". Draghi also added that "there are no reasons to refuse current benchmarks regarding interest rates", "the revision of the ECB policy at this stage is not required."

In response to a statement by Mario Draghi, the euro fell sharply in the foreign exchange market. The pair EUR / USD lost about 50 points in the moment, however, by the closing of the hour it was able to recover by half.

After yesterday's publication of the minutes from the last meeting of the FOMC, which caused a violent reaction in the foreign exchange market, today there is a mixed dynamics. However, the dollar remains the favorite. The Fed, as follows from the protocol, intends to reduce its balance, amounting to 4.5 trillion dollars. The portfolio of the Federal Reserve consists of treasury bonds and mortgage securities. Reducing the balance of the Fed means selling government bonds, which will increase their profitability. Even if the Fed does not increase the rate, the Fed's portfolio reduction will cause the dollar to strengthen as the yield of US government bonds rises.

Yesterday, a report from ADP was published that showed that the number of jobs in the private sector increased by 263,000 in March (the forecast was + 180,000 jobs). This suggests that the rate of hiring in the private sector in the US remained high in March, and the labor market in the US is in good shape.

The presented data are extremely important, since, in some way, they can signal that on Friday a strong official report from the US Department of Labor on the state of the labor market in the country will be presented. According to the forecast, an increase in the number of new places created in the non-agricultural sector of the US economy (NFP) by 180,000 is expected (after an increase of 235,000 in February); unemployment should remain at 4.7%.

The monthly increase in new jobs by more than 150,000 points confirms a stable labor market in the US. The state of the labor market, the pace and level of inflation, GDP growth are the main factors for the Fed in determining the need for tightening monetary policy in the US. If the forecast for NFP (+180 000 new jobs) is justified, then expectations of an early increase in the interest rate in the US will increase. This is a positive factor for the dollar. Conversely, a weak report on the labor market will cause a sharp weakening of the dollar. Recently, the situation is that when the weak macro data comes out, the dollar reacts much more strongly than when positive data are released. It is possible that this will happen this time too.

Support and resistance levels

After a sharp weakening at the end of last month, the pair EUR / USD is holding in the range between levels 1.0690, 1.0630. In view of the importance of the events of the current week in determining the future dynamics of the dollar, investors occupied, in the main, a wait-and-see attitude.

The pair broke through the important levels of support 1.0765 (EMA144 on the daily chart), 1.0690 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart). On the daily chart, the pair EUR / USD moves to the bottom line of the uplink, passing near the level of 1.0550 (November lows).

If the pair EUR / USD returns to the zone above the levels of 1.0690, 1.0700 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), then the scenario to decline to the level of 1.0550 will be canceled, and the pair may continue to rise to the levels of 1.0765 (EMA144), 1.0820 (EMA200 on the daily chart).

Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 1-hour, 4-hour, daily and weekly charts were deployed to short positions.

Meanwhile, the negative dynamics of the EUR / USD pair is prevailing.

 Support levels: 1.0600, 1.0550, 1.0500, 1.0485

Resistance levels: 1.0690, 1.0700, 1.0765, 1.0820, 1.0865, 1.0905

Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 1.0625. Stop-Loss 1.0685. Objectives 1.0600, 1.0550, 1.0500, 1.0485

Buy Stop 1.0685. Stop-Loss 1.0625. The objectives are 1.0700, 1.0725, 1.0755, 1.0770, 1.0820, 1.0865, and 1.0905