Dollar index trading at 95.25 (+0.00%)
Strength meter (today so far) – Euro +0.02%, Franc -0.01%, Yen -0.51%, GBP -0.77%
Strength meter (since last week) – Euro +0.04%, Franc +0.37%, Yen +0.21%, GBP -0.25%
EUR/USD –
Trading at 1.123
Trend meter –
- Long term – Sell, Medium term – Sell, Short term – Buy
Support
- Long term – 1.06, Medium term – 1.08, Short term – 1.09
Resistance –
- Long term – 1.16, Medium term – 1.143, Short term – 1.132
Economic release today –
- Zew survey for economic sentiment improved to 5.4 from 4.6
Commentary –
- The euro is almost flat this week so far. Active call – Sell EUR/USD at 1.116 with stop loss at 1.15 and target at 1.01. However, in the short run, Euro might ride higher.
GBP/USD –
Trading at 1.323
Trend meter –
- Long term – Sell, Medium term – Sell, Short term – Buy
Support –
- Long term – 1.2, Medium term – 1.27, Short term – 1.29
Resistance –
- Long term – 1.39, Medium term – 1.35, Short term – 1.34
Economic release today –
- RPI rose 1.8 percent y/y in August.
- HPI up 8.3 percent y/y in July.
- PPI output is up 0.8 percent y/y in August.
- PPI input is up 7.6 percent y/y in August.
- CPI is up 0.6 percent y/y and core CPI is up 1.3 percent y/y.
Commentary –
- The pound is the worst performer of the week after today’s drop as inflation pressure eases. We expect the pound to reach parity.
USD/JPY –
Trading at 102.3
Trend meter –
- Long term – Sell, Medium term – Range/ Sell, Short term – Sell
Support –
- Long term – 91, Medium term – 98, Short term – 98
Resistance –
- Long term – 111, Medium term – 107, Short term – 107
Economic release today –
- Flash reading shows that Machine tools orders declined by 8.4 percent y/y in August.
Commentary –
- The yen weakened as the risk aversion subsided. Active call – Buy Yen @119.5 with stop loss around 123.8 and target at 114 and 110, 108.9 and 98.5. All targets reached, new target 90 added. Yen may retrace to 111 per dollar if BOJ intervenes.
USD/CHF –
Trading at 0.972
Trend meter –
- Long term – Buy, Medium term – Range, Short term – Range/Sell
Support –
- Long term – 0.9, Medium term – 0.927, Short term – 0.95
Resistance –
- Long term – 1.037, Medium term – 1.01, Short term – 0.994
Economic release today –
- Producer and import prices down -0.4 percent in August.
Commentary –
- Franc is the best performer this week. We expect Franc to strengthen against Dollar to as high as 0.86 area in the medium term.
