GBP/USD: Bulk Of Brexit Impact Likely Behind Us But We Stay Short - BNPP

Attention will now turn to releases later in the week: May employment data (Wednesday), June retail sales (Thursday) and the services and manufacturing PMIs (Friday). Our expectation is that the PMIs will show a sharp post-Brexit weakening, with our economists forecasting the composite index at its lowest level since December 2012.

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On balance we think deterioration in activity data and rising expectations for BoE easing should push GBPUSD lower in the near-term, even if the bulk of the Brexit impact on the GBP is likely behind us.

We are short GBPUSD from 1.3350 targeting 1.2800.*

*BNPP is short GBP/USD from July 14.