EUR/CHF Could March to 1.15 in 12-Month – Danske Bank
EUR/CHF could climb to the 1.1500 region within a year’s view, according to Morten Helt, Senior Analyst at Danske Bank.
Key Quotes
“With the ECB moving away from the exchange/interest rate channel for easing, the pressure on the SNB from EUR weakness is fading”.
“EUR/CHF has moved to levels where the SNB is more comfortable that the
Swiss export industry is able to cope and recent communication from the
SNB suggests that the central bank is less determined to bring about
outright CHF weakness and thus willing to accept EUR/CHF staying at
these levels for now”.
“We expect EUR/CHF to trade slightly lower going into the UK’s EU referendum on 23 June as Brexit concerns are likely to increase further”.
“We target 1.09 in 1M with the risks skewed to the downside. Unless
EUR/CHF takes a significant dive (which could happen in the event of a
Brexit), we think the SNB will stay put for now”.
“Longer term we continue to expect fundamentals to support a higher
EUR/CHF and keep our 6Mand 12M forecasts unchanged at 1.12 and 1.15,
respectively”.
