USD: Net Long Positions at its Lowest Level Since July 2014 - SocGen
USD: Net Long Positions at its Lowest Level Since July 2014 - SocGen
Kit Juckes, Research Analyst at Societe Generale, suggests that last
week’s CFTC data put the speculative FX futures net long position in US
dollars at its lowest level since July 2014, as the market continues to
shed dollar longs.
Key Quotes
“Surely
that gives the dollar room to rally – Against something, anyway! In
positioning terms, yen longs on the CFTV data are now bigger than at any
time since the series started in 1992, but I’m a bit bruised by looking
for a USD/JPY reversal too early.
IKMM data show continued
build-up of longs in AUD, CAD and NZD but none of them are at extreme
levels – rather, they have bounced form extreme shorts. The data still
slow net shorts in MXN and a much-reduced short in EUR, while finally,
the sterling short continues to build.
Overall, this measure of
positioning at any rate, suggest that while cheaper oil will help the
dollar, it won’t send it dramatically higher unless we US data sends in
the cavalry and revives rate-hike expectations, not easy to do on a day
with a calendar limited to NAHB housing figures, and a week with housing
starts, existing home sales and the Philly Fed index. Whatever else we
buy, it won’t be volatility.”
