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Although there is no convincing technical evidence that dollar's retreat in Q1 is over, we suspect it is nearly complete. We will be especially sensitive to reversal patterns, divergences with technical indicators, and other signs that the move is exhausted. The fundamental economic driver of our medium term constructive outlook for the US dollar, the divergence of monetary policy between the major central banks, relative health of the financial sector, and absorption of capacity, remains intact. Like most, we never thought the Federal Reserve would hike rates four times this year, as it had suggested through its ... READ MORE
