Dear Traders,
We welcome you to a new trading week. Before coming to this week's main risk event - the European Central Bank meeting on Thursday - let us briefly look back at last Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls report. As expected trading the NFP-result proved to be tricky as sharp fluctuations have triggered several stop-losses and traders needed to reset trades patiently in order to benefit from the later profitable upward move. The U.S. labor market report showed an increase of more than 200k jobs in February and a steady unemployment rate below 5 percent. While the report can be regarded as strong, indicating the resilience of the economy, one important sub-component failed to impress: Average Hourly Earnings dropped -0.1 percent, which was the first decline since December 2014. The drop in wages has limited the positive impact on the U.S. dollar and therefore resulted in a short-squeeze in the euro and British pound.
Despite a relatively light economic calendar this week, the main focus will be on Thursday's ECB meeting and Draghi's ability to meet the market's high expectations. The central bank is expected to deliver a package of easing measures including a deposit-rate cut by at least 10 basis points, as well as an increase in monthly asset purchases. The ECB is also likely to announce downward revisions to Consumer Prices and GDP forecasts. While all these components point to an overall dovish tone having a negative impact on the euro, there is still room for disappointments. The market is bracing for an aggressive action by the ECB and if Draghi under-delivers, disappointing the market's expectations, the euro will rise as a result. Nonetheless the ECB aims to deliver and avoid a further appreciation of the euro which is why policymakers may announce a substantial easing mix sending the euro sharply lower. We expect the EUR/USD to come under increased pressure ahead of the meeting.
EUR/USD
For the time being, the euro could trade consolidated between 1.1070 and 1.08. If the currency pair is able to break above 1.1070, we might see an upward extension toward 1.11 where we see a next hurdle for the pair. A current support could be at 1.0970/60. Below 1.0950 the euro could slide towards 1.09 and 1.0860. However, a new trend should only be determined on Thursday.
Apart from the European Central Bank meeting there are no major economic reports scheduled for release this week but that does not mean that there will be no volatility. Let's wait and see.
Here are our daily signal alerts:
EUR/USD
Long @ 1.1015 SL 25 TP 20, 45
Short @ 1.0980 SL 25 TP 20, 40
GBP/USD
Long @ 1.4230 SL 25 TP 20, 60
Short @ 1.4190 SL 25 TP 20, 60
We wish you good trades and many pips!
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