The paradox of the U.S. consumer continues to confound economists. Wages and the number of jobs have risen to before crisis levels but while their confidence remains high in the short-term consumers have opted to save. The U.S. economy depends on consumer spending and the retail sales with few exceptions disappointed in the last two years. Most of the strong USD trends that start after NFP came to a crash after dismal retail sales.
Energy savings due to the low price of gas has not translated into higher consumer spending and until that happens the retail sales number will remain low. Global uncertainty adds to America's woes as consumers pull back spending therefore preventing a virtuous economic cycle from forming. U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen finished her two testimonies this week making clear the central bank is still somewhat hawkish on the U.S. economy in particular the jobs component, with most of the risks to U.S. growth coming from abroad.
Retail sales are expected at a 0.1 percent increase month over month. The core reading, excluding auto, is forecasted flat after retailers lost sales opportunities on winter apparel given the warm winter. The U.S. Census Bureau will release the retail sales data on Friday, February 12 at 8:30 am EST. >> Read More
