THE JOBS REPORT WILL ARRIVE AS MARKET UNCERTAINTY RISES DUE TO CHINA AND OIL PRICE FEARS |
The employment component has been the strongest pillar of the U.S. economy. Despite strong growth in the monthly job reports the U.S. Federal Reserve was patient and finally hiked interest rates in December 2015. With that major decision out of the way the market is now focused on when the next rate hike will come and how often the central bank will tighten monetary policy. The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in December were released on Wednesday, January 6 showed a cautious central bank. Gone were the confidence and swagger from Fed Chair and members leading up to the rate hike announcement. The word “gradually” took center stage as it describes expectations of a slow pace of growth of economic activity and inflation would warrant a measured pace of rate hikes. There was a familiar use of data dependency language that will guide the actions of the Federal Reserve. Given how Fed policy members themselves do not see a rapid recovery, the data is more likely to underwhelm going forward putting into question the real possibility of 4 rate hikes given how long the market had to wait for the one in December. The U.S. non farm payroll (NFP) will be published on Friday, January 8 at 8:30 am EST. The USD will await the report and the market reactions given the high levels of uncertainty after a volatile first week of 2016. >> Read More |
| UNDERSTANDING THE U.S. NONFARM PAYROLLS REPORT |
| Published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the NFP report includes the total number of workers (excluding certain industries) that are added to the U.S. economy on a monthly basis. It is published the first Friday of every month at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time. Of note, it affects all major currency pairs by ratcheting up FX market volatility. >> Video: An outlook on this month’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls  |
