Weekly fundamental overview for the week of October 26th

Hello traders, and welcome to this week fundamental analysis.

As always, we start with the not scheduled news, this time coming from Greece and Mexico, Greece is supposed to get 2 billion euros this week in order to maintain their cash flow, this means for the euro zone strenght by the part that it is still united and an extreme weakness as it indicates Europe is still on its road to a crisis; on the other hand Mexico received "the biggest hurricane in record" but the government made it to have 0 deaths over the weekend, this is increasing the confidence in the mexican government after a chain of critics over corruption took place on the aniversary of the massive student kill of 2014, and althought it won't mean the government is fully trustable yet, it means that Mexico has the power and tools to do things just right.

Now for the scheduled news we got several vital information from China indicating that, besides lowering its interest rate, the Chinese are beating expectations of their GDP, but it is still expected to finish this year below 10% growth, this gave strenght to all the indexes after the recent massive falls of September, from China we also got that the production index is not as high as expected which means most of the GDP is not coming from this index related industries.

Janet Yellen spoke last week, and she is still giving signals for a December rate hike, yet investors thinks she won't be able to send a strong signal at the fed meet, and after one year of rate hike promise, a lot of people are getting to know the details of the monetary policy, and criticizing it, making a quick US economy checkup, they have inflation rates way below their 2% objective, althought US is growing at a moderate pace and jobs are also a strong part of US economy, and in the last week we confirmed house sales are over the historical highs, a rate hike will build a stronger dollar, less competitive internationally and also the borrowed money will cost more, Fed expectations are that once they go for the rate hike businesses raise their prices as a result of this, because they are in a consumer based and not in a saver based economy, so therefore it should work, but according to external data that is not the best decision just yet, why? well a lot of its partners depends strongly in the dollar after the crude oil prices fall this and last year, many of latin american countries would inmediatly fall into recession and crisis if this decision is taken this year, January will not hit them so far after futures would be already in effect and they'd be protected and ready for the Fed rates hike, and March will most likely be the best time to have this interest hike.

Other relevant scheduled data we had last week is Europe and Canada monetary policy decision, that said nothing more that their strategies are working in what is possible and that they expect their economies to recover (in case of Europe) and keep the healthy economy (in case of Canada)

Also England got a huge peak on their minority sales, exceeding 6 times the forecast and doubling the loss of last month.

The earning reports started this week already and we see a lot of green in our screens, shall this continue? most probably, this would be the focus for this week besides macro economic data. 

Therefore the fundamental forecast for this week is as follow:

EUR: Bullish

USD: Neutral

GBP: Bullish

JPY: Neutral

CAD: Bullish

CHF: Neutral

NZD: Bullish

AUD: Neutral

MXN: Bullish 

Last week results: 

Currency: Forecast / Current True False Close

EUR: Neutral / Extremely bearish

USD: Bearish / Extremely bullish

GBP: Bullish / Bullish

JPY: Bullish  / Bearish

CAD: Bullish / Bearish

CHF: Bullish / Extremely bearish

NZD: Neutral / Neutral-Bullish

AUD: Bullish / Neutral-Bullish

MXN: Bearish / Bearish