Deutsche Bank expects the platinum market to be balanced until around 2021.
The current fleet of projects is enough "to offset the endemic grade decline and mine depletion in South African supply in the medium term, in our opinion,” the lender says.
Given the sunk
capex, these projects provide decent returns as they are low cost.
The bank gauges a cumulative market deficit of
100,000 to 300,000 ounces over the next seven years – “essentially a
balanced market.”
Deutsche Bank says
increasing recycling volumes, the rising market share of electric vehicles and today's raft of supply additions - sufficient to offset depletion - should lead to "marginal cost" prices.
“However, mine depletion catches up, and we estimate that new mines will be required by the middle of the next decade.”
