Firstly, a few words regarding last week’s forecast:
- The majority of experts tended towards the view that the EUR/USD pair would maintain the monthly sideways trend and would therefore descend to its lowest level - the 1.1200 area and possibly beyond that to 1.1160, which is what ended up happening with 100% accuracy;
- Now onto the GBP/USD pair. Stemming from the opinions of 55% analysts and indications resulting from graphical analysis, we predicted that the pair would descend to a 1.5740 support level. This forecast was also fulfilled, as the pair ended the working week at precisely that level;
- The 122.00-124.50 sideways corridor prediction for the USD/JPY pair also ended up being correct. However, it was thought that before the pair arrived at the upper boundary of the corridor it would first descend to just below 122.00, which did not happen. There had indeed been a descent but it was rather minor, and just on Monday the pair launched upwards, arriving at the 124.40-124.50 resistance level by Wednesday;
- For the USD/CHF pair experts identified 0.9390 as a resistance level. The pair swiftly reached this mark on Tuesday, after which its volatility rapidly diminished and its movement continued within the much more modest 0.9285-0.9390 corridor for the rest of the week.
***
Now onto the forecast for the upcoming week. Generalizing the opinions of 35analysts from the world’s leading banks and brokerage firms, as well as forecasts, made on the basis of the largest possible range of technical and graphical analysis methods, the following can be said:
- for EUR/USD the majority of both experts and indicators foretell a continuation of the sideways trend, during which the “bears” will enjoy a certain advantage, which will result in a likely strong support level of 1.1035. The upper boundary of the corridor is, as previously, 1.1450, with the Pivot Point being 1.1200;
- for the GBP/USD pair analysts likewise deem the sideways trend to be most likely. However, unlike with the EUR/USD pair, “bullish” tendencies will dominate, meaning that we cannot dismiss either the option of the pair’s rise to the upper boundary of the corridor at the 1.5930 level, but also a break and an upwards movement towards 1.6000;
- both experts and indicators agree on the view that the “bears” will also show their strength in the battle for the future of the USD/JPY pair. We can judge last week’s final level of 123.85 to be a likely Pivot Point, with the pair’s target being a resistant break in the 124.40 zone and the achievement of the 125.00 level;
- with regards to the behaviour of the USD/CHF pair, time and time again an inverse correlation with the EUR/USD pair can be observed. Stemming from that, we can expect the pair to rise towards the 0.9400 mark, or even beyond that to 0.9450.
Roman Butko, NordFX & Sergey Ershov
