• The dollar traded higher against NOK, GBP, NZD and AUD, in that order, while it was lower compared with CHF and EUR. Dollar stable against the JPY, SEK and CAD.
• EUR started weakening after a disappointing French preliminary PMI data for April, but recovered after eurozone figures were announced. Even though the data of major economies, the unit of Germany and France were disappointing and below expectations, as well as the general index for the euro zone manufacturing and services weakened by the fact that the euro zone composite data managed to remain in expansionary territory for 22 months row, supported EUR. In addition, as a member of the Executive Board, said the ECB Peter Praet at an event in Berlin, the eurozone "sees the beginning of the cyclical recovery. But that's not structural." EUR / USD rebounded from 1.0660 support to confirm our view that we should wait for a break below this line to confirm the trend to the downside.
• Retail sales in the UK fell short of expectations and grew by only 0.2% on the month-to-month in March, compared with 0.6% a month earlier. Even though the lower energy prices and low inflation have increased the amount of money to spend, not reflected in the moderate growth in retail sales. Perhaps the uncertainty regarding the outcome of the forthcoming general election makes consumers wait until the risks to future policy will not subside before spending. GBP / USD down, found support near 1.4960 and bounced back, moving around the 1.5000 level. While we are getting closer and closer to the election, it is possible that the cable will trade below this psychological mark.
• USD / RUB lost nearly 30% this year from their peak in January, despite the gloomy forecasts for the Russian economy, low oil prices and geopolitical instability. Now we see a period of stabilization around the 50 mark on the level with the stabilization of oil prices. Ruble appreciation is also due to tax payments, exporters sell their stocks to catch up to the end of the tax deadlines. Nevertheless, the central bank is expected to cut key rates during its meeting next week, even though the economy is still suffering from the double-digit inflation. Thus, the fundamentals suggest that we may soon see again rally on USD / RUB.
• USD / RUB traded down during the European session on Thursday, after a test of resistance at 53.50. The pair is trading in the downlink, starting from January 30, so I would consider a short-term negative picture. I expect that today's decline will continue and will challenge again the support of 48,80 (S1), defined by a minimum of 16 April and a maximum of 17 November. The breaking below 47,40 (S2) - a movement that can cause big bearish movement. Something like this could trigger a further decline, aimed at the level of 44,00 (S3). Our short-term oscillators increase the opportunity to continue falling today, at least to the level of 48,80 (S1). RSI has reached its resistance in the 50 line and bounced, and MACD, already shows signs of increased negative. He could drop below its signal line in the near future.
• Support: 48.80 (S1), 47.40 (S2), 44.00 (S3).
• Resistance: 53.30 (R1), 56.00 (R2), 58.30 (R3).
